Climate Control: Global Warming Solutions for California Cars (2004)
Global warming is one of the most serious long-term environmental threats our planet faces. An international scientific consensus predicts that the average global temperature will increase during the coming century and the resulting changes will have substantial and adverse impacts on global weather patterns.
California, by itself one of the world’s largest economies, can be seen as a microcosm of both the national and planetary problems associated with global warming. Even an increase of a few degrees can affect the weather patterns seen across California, affecting snow pack amounts and, in turn, water supplies. In addition, increases in average temperatures could also lead to the loss of native species and vegetation, damage to agricultural crops, unhealthy air quality, increased spread of infectious diseases, and increases in the frequency and severity of storms and natural disasters such as wildfires and mudslides.
All of these factors increase the risks to California’s public health, natural resources, and infrastructure. Responding to and mitigating these risks will place large demands on the state’s economy throughout this century. Because the federal government has failed to take action against climate change, states have begun to take up the burden of reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases—the pollutants that contribute to global warming. California, as it has in the past, is leading the way by focusing on the largest source of heat-trapping emissions in the state—motor vehicles. The 2002 passage of A.B. 1493, also known as the California Vehicle Global Warming Law, made the Golden State’s government the first in the world to require limits on heat-trapping emissions from passenger vehicles.
Stopping the Problem at its Source
More than 1.5 million new vehicles are sold each year in California which makes up for over 10% of the country's new vehicle market. As a result of the state's aggressive air quality regulations, these vehicles have a much smaller impact on local air quality than they did 20 years ago, but their emissions of heat-trapping gases have continued to increase. Mobile sources including passenger vehicles account for approximately half of California's global warming pollution.
California Heat-Trapping Emissions by Source (1999)
Overall, the combustion of gasoline by motor vehicles is responsible for almost 40 percent of the state's carbon dioxide (CO2) emission inventory and slightly more than 30 percent of its total heat-trapping emission inventory. A model year 2000 vehicle sold in California will emit about 90 tons of heat-trapping gases from its tailpipe—more than 95 percent of which take the form of CO2—into the atmosphere during its lifetime. Without action to reduce these emissions, the total CO2 produced by the state's passenger vehicle fleet will almost double by 2040.
California’s Actions Can Have a Global Impact
Because California accounts for more than 10 percent of all new vehicles sold in the United States, reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases here will have a noticeable effect on the national inventory. Furthermore, the way in which the state regulates its motor vehicles also has a powerful influence on the rest of the nation.
Several states have already adopted California's emission regulations for passenger vehicles and, as a result, passenger vehicles that meet current California emission standards now account for approximately one-quarter of new U.S. vehicle sales. Adding the regulations outlined in California's new Vehicle Global Warming Law to these standards would produce even larger reductions in the national heat-trapping emission inventory.
A number of states have also entered into agreements to take regional actions limiting heat-trapping emissions. If all of the states that have undertaken significant global warming initiatives to date were to adopt California vehicle tailpipe standards, including those set by the California Vehicle Global Warming Law, roughly one-third of the new vehicles sold in this country would be helping to lower global warming emissions.
The impact of California's regulations is not even confined to our national borders. Canada, too, has already expressed a desire to adopt regulations similar to those of California if it is unable to reach a voluntary agreement with automakers. Adoption of California-style standards in Canada would affect more than a million more new vehicles each year.
Emission Reductions are Possible Today
Enormous potential exists to reduce the global warming impact of new vehicles sold. Improvements in air conditioning systems, engines, and transmissions, as well as reductions in vehicle loads, are possible with technologies available today. These technologies could begin producing substantial emission reductions immediately if automakers decided to apply them fleet wide. Even greater reductions are possible with technologies that will be introduced over the next five years.
Emission-reducing technologies that are currently available and already being used in specific vehicles include variable valve lift and timing (in many Honda models), continuously variable transmissions (in the Saturn Ion, Nissan Murano, and Mini Cooper), and cylinder deactivation (which General Motors is planning to use in many of its large trucks beginning in 2004). These examples, while demonstrating the viability and consumer acceptance of such technologies, are the exceptions rather than the rule. Further penetration of these technologies into the new vehicle fleet could lead to greater near-term emission reductions, but, as history has shown, most automakers will not fulfill this technological potential on their own.
Modeling conducted by the Union of Concerned Scientists shows that by applying currently available technology to all new vehicles sold in California, fleet average heat-trapping emissions could be reduced 20 percent. Emissions from a Ford Explorer could be reduced nearly 25 percent, and emissions from a Toyota Camry could be reduced almost 20 percent. Similar reductions are possible in all vehicle classes. Furthermore, the additional cost of these vehicle improvements would be recouped in the form of decreased operating costs after less than three and a half years of driving, on average.
Even Greater Reductions are Possible in the Next 5 – 10 Years
Realizing the potential of today's technology is just the first step down a path to vehicles that are both consumer- and climate-friendly. Many new technologies that could lead to even greater emission reductions are just on the horizon, including stoichiometric direct-injection engines, automated manual transmissions, and 42V integrated starter-generators that allow the engine to turn off while idling.
Emission Reduction Potential for the California New Vehicle Fleet
Our modeling shows that these technologies, which should be available for fleetwide implementation during the next five years, could deliver a 40 percent reduction in fleet average heat-trapping emissions when combined with currently available technologies. For example, a Ford Explorer could achieve a 43 percent reduction in emissions and a Toyota Camry could achieve a 41 percent reduction. The additional cost associated with these vehicle improvements could be recouped in less than four and a half years of driving, on average. But society cannot benefit from these technologies unless automakers actually install them.
