Union of Concerned Scientists

Introduction Climate Projections Agriculture Forests & Wildlife Human Health Lakes, Streams, & Fish Property and Infrastructure Recreation & Tourism Water Supply & Pollution Wetlands & Shorebirds Climate Solutions Resources & Links

Climate Changes Projections
Although Minnesota's climate may be famed for it's frequent winter blizzards, it is also known for mild summers that makes it an ideal location for a variety of outdoor activities that include canoeing, fishing, camping, and hiking. Climate change stands to change not only Minnesota's climate but also the composition of forests, lakes, and other features that make Minnesota unique.

The latest, most reliable projections of future climate change combine 100 years of historical data for Minnesota with the most up-to-date general circulation models of the Earth's climate system. In general Minnesota's climate will grow considerably warmer and probably drier during this century, especially in the summer. As a result of these changes, by 2030, Minnesota's summer climate will resemble that of current-day Wisconsin. By 2095 Minnesota's summers will resemble that of current-day Kansas and winters will feel like Wisconsin.

Below is more detail on these projections. For a graphical depiction, see the Migrating Climates feature.

Projected Climate Changes in Minnesota
	A 4-8oF rise in winter and a 7-16oF rise in summer temperatures by the end of the century is projected.
	Although average annual precipitation may not change much, an overall drier climate is expected because rainfall cannot compensate for the increase in evaporation resulting from greater temperatures. Changes in seasonal precipitation are expected with winter precipitation expected to increase by 15-35% and summer precipitation decreasing by as much as 15%. Thus Minnesota may see drier soils and more droughts.
	Extreme heat will be more common, and the frequency of heavy rainstorms, both 24-hour and multi-day, will increase and could be 50-100% higher than today.
	The growing season could be 3-6 weeks longer.
	Declines in ice cover on the Great Lakes and inland lakes have been recorded over the past 100-150 years and are expected to continue.