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Climate Change Projections
Southern Ontario's relatively mild climate supports a productive agricultural sector while the tourism sector thrives as a result of Ontario's lakeshores and inland waters. Climate change threatens to change the character of this region, and many of southern Ontario's unique features.

The latest, most reliable projections of future climate change combine 100 years of historical data for Southern Ontario with the most up-to-date general circulation models of the Earth's climate system. In general Southern Ontario's climate will grow considerably warmer and probably drier during this century, especially in the summer. As a result of these changes, by 2030 summer in southern Ontario may feel more like current-day summer in upstate New York. Changes by 2095 are expected to be much more drastic however, with summers feeling like those today in Virginia.

Below is more detail on these projections. For a graphical depiction, see the Migrating Climates feature.

Projected Climate Changes in Ohio
	A 3-7oC rise in winter temperatures and a 4-8oC rise in summer temperatures by the end of the century is projected.
	Although average annual precipitation may not change much, an overall drier climate is expected because rainfall cannot compensate for the increase in evaporation resulting from greater temperatures. Thus Ontario may see drier soils and more droughts. Seasonally, winter precipitation is expected to increase by 10-30% while summer precipitation is expected to remain the same.
	Extreme heat will be more common, and the frequency of heavy rainstorms will increase.
	The growing season in southern Ontario could be 4-7 weeks longer.
	Declines in ice cover on the Great Lakes and inland lakes have been recorded over the past 100-150 years, although this trend has been moderated in areas of lake-effect snow, it is expected to continue.