| December 4, 2008 |  |
Missile Defense Test Will Not Prove System Will Work in Real World
An upcoming test provides no proof that a US missile defene system will be effective in a real-life attack
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has scheduled an intercept test for the ground-based midcourse missile defense system for tomorrow, Friday, December 5, between noon and 4 pm California time (3 pm to 7 pm EST). If it is delayed, the window continues through December 8. The test is labeled FTG-05.
In this test, MDA will launch a target missile from Kodiak Island, Alaska, and an interceptor from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Given the range of the target missile will be significantly shorter than an intercontinental range missile, the target speed will be significantly slower than it would be in an intercept attempt against a warhead from a long-range missile.
While little is known publicly about MDA's target in this test, it appears that the mock warhead will be accompanied by countermeasures, such as decoys. If so, this will be first test since test IFT-10 in December 2002 to use decoys.
"Successful or not, this test will not prove that the missile defense system can counter real-world decoys," said David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. It appears that the defense system will attempt to rely on the kill vehicle's sensor to distinguish the mock warhead from the decoys, he explained. This method of "discrimination," however, requires the defense system to know what the various objects look like in advance, which would not be the case in an actual attack. Moreover, anyone launching an attack could easily change the various objects' appearance prior to the attack to fool the defense.
In other words, Wright said, the discrimination capability MDA apparently plans to test tomorrow would not be useful in an actual attack since it can be easily countered by an attacker.
For an in-depth analysis of tomorrow's test, go to: www.ucsusa.org/mdatest5. David Wright is available for comment. Call Elliott Negin at 202-331-5439 to arrange for an interview.
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
