| March 30, 2009 |  |
North Korea to Launch Satellite in Early April
UCS global security expert David Wright's assessment
North Korea recently announced that it will attempt to launch a satellite into orbit between April 4 and April 8. The rocket, the Unha-2, has never been launched successfully before, and experts know few details about it or its capabilities.
David Wright, a physicist and co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), cautioned that U.S. political leaders should not jump to conclusions if North Korea's upcoming launch is successful.
"A successful satellite launch would show that North Korea has increased its missile capabilities," he said, "but it would not necessarily demonstrate that North Korea could launch a nuclear warhead to intercontinental range. North Korea may not yet have the technical ability to modify the launcher to give it long-range capability."
North Korea's existing missiles include copies of the short-range Soviet Scud missile and the 800-mile (1,300-kilometer (km)) range Nodong missile. These, and the TaepoDong-1 (TD-1) missile North Korea used in an unsuccessful satellite launch attempt in 1998, likely use Scud-level technology. If the Unha-2 launcher relies on similar technology, UCS analysis shows it could probably launch a 200-pound (100 kilogram (kg)) satellite into orbit.
If launched as a ballistic missile, it would be able to carry a 1-ton payload (about the weight of a first-generation nuclear warhead) approximately 4,000 miles (6,000 km)—far shorter than intercontinental range.
Reaching longer ranges would require upgrades to the technology, which North Korea may or may not be able to accomplish, Wright said. These upgrades include making the rocket body out of lighter-weight materials and using more powerful fuels in the rocket stages. If North Korea is able to make those changes successfully, he said, it could develop a missile with true intercontinental capability.
North Korea has conducted a nuclear test, but it is not known whether it has developed a warhead of the size and mass that could be delivered on a missile.
North Korea announced splash-down zones for the first two stages of the launcher it will use, which indicates a launch in a direction consistent with a satellite launch. That will take the launcher over the Pacific Ocean in the general direction of Hawaii, but not toward the continental United States. It also will take the launcher over the northern tip of the main Japanese island of Honshu early in flight.
For more information on the launch, see two articles by Wright:
"An Analysis of North Korea's Unha-2 Launch Vehicle" and "Examining North Korea's Satellite Launch Vehicle"
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
