| September 10, 2009 |  |
Unchecked Climate Change Could Cost Midwest Billions
WASHINGTON (September 10, 2009) — Unchecked climate change could saddle taxpayers, businesses, and state and local governments in the Midwest with hundreds of billions of dollars in damages, according to a new report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report, "Climate Change in the United States: The Prohibitive Costs of Inaction," is an overview of more than 60 studies analyzing the potential financial toll of global warming if we fail to dramatically curb emissions. The costs are largely due to rising sea levels, more intense hurricanes, flooding, declining public health, strained energy and water resources, and impaired transportation infrastructure.
"If we don't address global warming, the number of torrential rainstorms could nearly double across the country, and the Midwest would bear the brunt," said Lexi Shultz, deputy director of the Climate Program at UCS. "These storms have already cost the Midwest tens of billions of dollars, and it could get a lot worse if we don't act."
The good news is that the cost of taking preventive action would be dramatically less than the cost of doing nothing. Two nonpartisan federal agencies recently calculated the cost of a climate and energy bill, passed by the House of Representatives in June, that would promote clean energy technologies and curb global warming emissions. The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration estimated that the bill would increase U.S. household energy bills by only $10 a month in 2020. The Congressional Budget Office arrived at a similar estimate. As Energy Secretary Steven Chu pointed out, "We can move to a clean energy future at a cost of less than a postage stamp per family per day."
"The investments we need to make in a clean energy economy are clearly affordable and will pay major dividends," said Rachel Cleetus, climate economist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "What we can't afford are the steep and rising costs of doing nothing."
Global warming already has altered the U.S. climate, the report pointed out: "Average U.S. temperatures have already risen by 2°F over the past 50 years, and are projected to rise another 7°F to 11°F by the end of this century" if we do not significantly cut emissions. Given that heat-trapping gases remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries, continuing to emit them at current rates would place a massive burden on generations to come.
Below are just some examples of costs that would be incurred due to extreme weather events and diminished tourism if global warming continues unabated.
MORE HOSPITALIZATIONS: The Midwest is likely to suffer much hotter summers, particularly in such cities as Cleveland, Chicago and St. Louis. Higher urban temperatures have severe consequences: For example, during the peak of the Chicago heat wave of 1995, admissions to Cook County hospitals rose 11 percent, to 1,072 patients. One analysis found a heat wave of that magnitude 10 years later would have cost $18 million, given the average cost per hospitalized patient in 2005. Costs would be even higher now.
MORE FLOODS: It's not just hotter summers that carry a high price tag. A projected increase in flooding would as well. According to a June 2009 climate report by 13 federal agencies, heavy rainstorms are projected to increase as much as 40 percent nationwide, and the Midwest and Northeast likely would experience the greatest increase in heavy downpours. Recent floods portend significant future costs. In May and June of last year, thunderstorms, tornadoes and floods caused more than $18 billion in damage and 55 deaths nationwide, primarily in the Midwest.
In 1993, a record-breaking flood in the Midwest caused $30 billion of damages, hitting Iowa, Illinois and Missouri hardest. The flood caused crop losses of 12 percent in Missouri, 11 percent in Minnesota, and 7 percent in Iowa. It also caused an estimated 52 deaths, destroyed 70,000 homes and buildings, and left 74,000 people homeless. A senior U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency official estimated that payments from the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) for crops damaged by a similar flood today would be five times the $2 billion paid in 1993—and not all farmers were insured through the FCIP for that flood.
MORE CROP DAMAGE: Warmer winters in the Midwest mean that crop pests and pathogens normally kept in check by cold temperatures are projected to expand their ranges northward, causing crop damage beyond the $78.5 billion now lost to pests each year. Climate change also may mean wetter springs, which could delay crop planting. One study projected a 7 percent increase in precipitation in Illinois, which would increase soil erosion as much as 38 percent by 2060, driving up the costs of agricultural production. When combined with a predicted 4.5°F increase in annual average temperatures, the annual costs of climate change for Illinois's agricultural sector could reach $9.3 billion.
THREATS TO WATERWAYS: Unchecked climate change also would threaten shipping on the rivers and lakes of the Midwest. The Midwest relies heavily on transporting goods on the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River and its tributaries, which together handle nearly 700 million tons of cargo—including coal, petroleum products, iron ore, farm products, and other bulk materials—every year. Climate change is projected to substantially reduce Great Lake water levels by 2100. Every lost inch of water depth in the Great Lakes means that freighters must reduce their cargo by 50 to 270 tons. Too little—and too much—water can make river navigation more difficult. Without access to barge transportation on the upper Mississippi—above St. Louis—and the Illinois River, corn, soybean and wheat producers would lose an estimated $350 million annually. Iowa producers likely would be the hardest hit, potentially losing as much as $152 million. Their counterparts in Minnesota likely would lose $78 million, while those in Illinois would lose $50 million. Dredging—which could cost $85 million to 142 million annually by 2100—may be the only way to keep these shipping lanes viable.
In addition, the Midwest's tourism industry stands to lose revenue if water levels in the Great Lakes fall by several feet, curbing opportunities for boating, fishing and bird-watching. Rising temperatures in rivers and streams in Michigan and other states also would reduce opportunities to catch trout and other popular fish.
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
