| September 10, 2009 |  |
Unchecked Climate Change Could Cost West Billions
WASHINGTON (September 10, 2009) — Unchecked climate change could saddle taxpayers, businesses, and state and local governments in the American West with hundreds of billions of dollars in damages, according to a new report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report, "Climate Change in the United States: The Prohibitive Costs of Inaction," is an overview of more than 60 studies analyzing the potential financial toll of global warming if we fail to dramatically curb emissions. The costs are largely due to rising sea levels, more intense hurricanes, flooding, declining public health, strained energy and water resources, and impaired transportation infrastructure.
"If we don't address climate change, we could lose most of our snowpack in the Northwest by late this century, which would kill the ski industry in California, Washington and Oregon," said Lexi Shultz, deputy director of the Climate Program at UCS. "In addition, those states could be hit with an additional billion dollars in property damage from wildfires every year toward the end of the century."
The good news is that the cost of taking preventive action would be dramatically less than the cost of doing nothing. Two nonpartisan federal agencies recently calculated the cost of a climate and energy bill, passed by the House of Representatives in June, that would promote clean energy technologies and curb global warming emissions. The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration estimated that the bill would increase U.S. household energy bills by only $10 a month in 2020. The Congressional Budget Office arrived at a similar estimate. As Energy Secretary Steven Chu pointed out, "We can move to a clean energy future at a cost of less than a postage stamp per family per day."
"The investments we need to make in a clean energy economy are clearly affordable and will pay major dividends," said Rachel Cleetus, climate economist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "What we can't afford are the steep and rising costs of doing nothing."
Global warming already has altered the U.S. climate, the report pointed out: "Average U.S. temperatures have already risen by 2°F over the past 50 years, and are projected to rise another 7°F to 11°F by the end of this century" if we do not significantly cut emissions. Given that heat-trapping gases remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries, continuing to emit them at current rates would place a massive burden on generations to come.
Below are just some examples of costs that would be incurred due to sea level rise, extreme weather events, wildfires, and diminished tourism if global warming continues unabated.
NEW MEXICO
In New Mexico, the combined annual health costs from heat waves and ground-level ozone are expected to jump by $1.6 billion by 2080. Reduced stream flows, from rivers primarily supplied by snowmelt, would cost farmers an estimated $21 million per year by 2080. Rising temperatures also would reduce the efficiency of power generation and transmission systems. One analysis estimated that inefficient energy transmission during heat waves could cost New Mexico consumers $1 billion annually by 2080, and that the added costs of air conditioning would cost them $1.6 billion more every year. In addition, wildfires would cost New Mexico an estimated $2 billion in timber value and additional firefighting expenditures a year by 2080.
CALIFORNIA
California residents would pay dearly. Annual heat-related health costs, for example, would reach an estimated $14 billion by 2100, while rising ground-level ozone levels would boost medical bills by another $10 billion. The cost of protecting low-lying coastal property from sea level rise and the resulting storm surges, particularly around San Francisco Bay, would range from $6 billion to $30 billion annually by 2100.
The state's economy also would take a major hit. By the end of the century Sierra snowpack could diminish 80 percent. As a result, California's ski season could disappear, and with it 15,000 jobs and $500 million in annual industry revenues. Total annual tourism industry losses could reach $7.5 billion. Meanwhile, annual losses to state agriculture, forestry and fisheries could reach $4.3 billion. Hotter conditions would slow production and reduce the quality of many of the state's agricultural products. For example, milk production could fall as much as 22 percent by 2100.
Meanwhile, water shortages are projected to constrain electricity production. Even if the most severe climate change does not occur, analysts project that California will lose 10 to 20 percent of its hydropower at an annual cost of $440 million to $880 million. Energy demand is expected to increase 3 to 20 percent by the end of the century, primarily because of more air conditioning use. That would increase Californians' energy bills $1 billion to $8 billion every year. Additionally, annual large wildfires would increase by as much as 53 percent by 2100. Last year, the federal government spent $200 million on firefighting efforts in California, three-quarters of which went to fight three fires. States often pay additional firefighting costs to protect homes and businesses, equal to about 25 percent of what the federal government has spent.
WASHINGTON AND OREGON
These two states together could lose $1.7 billion in annual revenues from hydropower by 2080 because of shrinking snowpack and water shortages. By 2080 the states' ski industry would suffer an estimated $525 million dollar annual loss due to reduced snowfall, while the cold-water angling industry would experience more than a $1 billion annual decline. In addition, by 2080, Oregon and Washington likely would suffer an additional $497 million and $380 million respectively in annual property damage from wildfires.
ALASKA
Over the last 50 years, Alaska has warmed more than twice as fast as the rest of the nation, and melting permafrost has damaged roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. Continued thawing would add $3.6 billion to $6 billion to the cost of publicly owned infrastructure by 2030, and $5.6 billion to $7.6 billion by 2080. Oil and gas infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. Much of the Trans-Alaska pipeline, for example, is built on permafrost.
Alaska also is threatened by sea-level rise. The cost of locating just three threatened towns—Shismaref, Kivalina and Newtok—is estimated at $405 million.
In addition, Alaska's wildfires could quadruple by 2100.
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
