| July 28, 2009 |  |
Unchecked Climate Change Would Result in More Heat Waves, More Flooding, and Reduced Crop Yields in Indiana, New Report Finds
Congress Considering Legislation that Could Help Indiana and Rest of Nation Avoid Worst Impacts
CHICAGO (July 28, 2009) — If the United States does not significantly curb heat-trapping emissions, global warming will seriously harm Indiana's climate and economy, according to a peer-reviewed report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report also found that a combination of clean energy policies—such as those currently under consideration by the U.S. Senate—would help blunt the extent and severity of climate change in Indiana and nationally.
"The Midwest climate is already changing. Over the past 50 years, we've seen higher average annual temperatures, more frequent downpours, longer growing seasons, and fewer cold snaps," said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University and a co-author of the report. "The future changes documented in this report are sobering. The silver lining is that we can avoid the worst of them if we dramatically cut global warming emissions starting in the very near future."
The report, "Confronting Climate Change in Indiana," describes how Indiana's climate could change under two scenarios: one assumes a business-as-usual increase in heat-trapping emissions from continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and the other assumes substantially lower emissions due to an increased reliance on clean energy sources. The report compared the two scenarios with a baseline period between 1961 and 1990.
The report found that toward the end of this century, under the higher, business-as-usual emissions scenario:
CLIMATE: Average summer temperatures in Indiana would be as much as 13 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) higher than the baseline period. During the 30-year baseline period, for example, Indianapolis experienced about 20 days per summer when temperature topped 90°F and less than one day per summer with temperatures over 100°F. Unchecked global warming would force city residents to endure more than 80 days per summer with highs over 90°F and almost a month of days per summer over 100°F. Indianapolis residents also would face at least two heat waves per summer like the one that killed hundreds in Chicago in 1995. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, heat waves already kill more people in the United States each year than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and lightning combined.
AGRICULTURE: Crops and livestock would experience substantially more heat stress, depressing crop yields and livestock productivity. Dairy cattle in Indiana rarely experienced heat stress during the baseline period, but they would experience it most summers toward the end of the century unless kept cool in costly air-conditioned barns, for example. Warmer winters and a growing season as much as six weeks longer than before 1990 would enable pests, such as the corn earworm, to expand their range. Crop production would be threatened by changing rain patterns, ranging from wetter springs—which delay planting and increase flood risk—to almost 10 percent less rain during the increasingly hot summers. Crop-damaging three- and seven-day heat waves would occur at least every other summer toward the end of the century. During the report's baseline period, three-day heat waves occurred about once a decade, and seven-day heat waves occurred one out of every 30 summers.
EXTREME WEATHER: Heavy rains would become more common throughout the year, leading to a greater incidence of flash flooding. Winters and springs, when the flood risk is already high, would become 30 percent wetter than during the baseline decades.
HEALTH: If tailpipe and smokestack emissions continue at the baseline levels, Indiana will experience more severe smog as the number of extremely hot days increases. That would have serious consequences for public health, including a greater incidence of asthma attacks and other respiratory conditions. For example, ground level ozone—a dangerous air pollutant and the main component of smog—increases at temperature higher than 90°F. That is particularly bad news for the 12 counties in the state, including those around Indianapolis, that do not meet the Environmental Protection Agency's federal ozone standard.
In mid-June, 13 federal agencies released a comprehensive national report that reviewed the same higher and lower emissions scenarios that UCS analyzed in the report released today. The federal report similarly concluded there is still time to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
Shortly after the national report came out, the House of Representatives passed "The American Clean Energy and Security Act," a landmark bill that would help build a new clean energy economy and launch the first national plan of action to address global warming. The bill is currently under consideration in the Senate.
"The science is clear. We have to get started now so that our children and grandchildren don't suffer through deadly heat waves, and our farmers don't have to battle more extreme droughts and floods, and greater pest and weed infestation," said Ron Burke, Midwest office director at UCS. "Our report shows how critical it is for Indiana's congressional delegation to support a bill that will get America running on clean energy."
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
