| September 9, 2009 |  |
Illinois and Climate Change: New Report Projects More Extreme Heat, Flooding, and Lower Ag Productivity Unless Emissions Curtailed
Congress Considering Legislation that Could Help Illinois and the Rest of the Nation Avoid Worst Consequences of Global Warming
CHICAGO (Sept. 9, 2009) — If the United States does not significantly curb heat-trapping emissions, global warming will seriously damage Illinois' climate and economy, according to a new peer-reviewed report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report found that a combination of clean energy policies—such as those currently under consideration by the U.S. Senate—would help blunt the extent and severity of global warming in Illinois and across the country.
"The Midwest climate is already changing. Over the past 50 years, we've seen higher average annual temperatures, more frequent downpours, longer growing seasons, and fewer cold snaps," said Don Wuebbles, a climate scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a co-author of the report. "The likely changes documented in this report are sobering. The good news is that we can avoid the worst of them if we substantially cut global warming emissions and start doing it now."
The report, "Confronting Climate Change in Illinois," describes how the state's climate could change under two scenarios: one assumes a business-as-usual increase in heat-trapping emissions from continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and the other assumes substantially lower emissions due to an increased reliance on clean energy sources. The report compared the two scenarios with a baseline period between 1961 and 1990.
The report found that toward the end of this century, under the higher, business-as-usual emissions scenario:
CLIMATE: Average summer temperatures in Illinois would be as much as 13°F higher than the baseline period. Over than 30-year stretch, Chicago experienced only 15 days per summer when temperatures topped 90°F and about two days with temperatures over 100°F. Unchecked global warming would force city residents to endure more than 70 days per summer with temperatures higher than 90°F and more than a month with temperatures over 100°F.
Chicago residents also would face at least two summer heat waves every year like the one that killed hundreds in the city in 1995. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, heat waves already kill more people in the United States each year than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and lightning combined.
Agriculture: The Illinois agriculture sector would suffer from substantially more heat stress, which would impair livestock productivity. Illinois hog producers—whose hog sales reached $800 million in 2007—already lose $20.5 million annually due to heat-stressed animals. By the end of the century, nearly permanent heat stress would plague hogs, dairy cattle and other livestock unless they are kept cool, for example, in costly air-conditioned barns.
Crop yields would also suffer. Illinois has 67 percent of its land in crop production and ranks second among the states in crop value. A 1988 heat wave that cost the United States $40 billion—mostly due to crop losses—reduced Illinois corn and soybean yields by more than 75 percent of their average annual yields from 1978 to 1997. By mid-century under the higher-emissions scenario, all Illinois summers are projected to be hotter than 1988.
Warmer winters and a growing season as much as six weeks longer than during the baseline decades would enable pests, such as the corn earworm, to expand their range. Between 1961 and 1990, conditions favorable to the corn earworm occurred once every 15 years in the middle of the state and once every three years in southern Illinois. With unchecked global warming, by the end of this century corn earworm infestations could happen nearly half the summers in the state's midsection and nearly every summer in the south.
Crop production also would be threatened by changing rain patterns, ranging from wetter springs—which delay planting and increase flood risk—to nearly 15 percent less rain during increasingly hot summers. Crop-damaging three- and seven-day heat waves would occur at least every other summer toward the end of the century. During the report's baseline period, three-day heat waves occurred only about once a decade, and seven-day heat waves occurred once out of 30 summers.
Extreme Weather: Heavy rains would become more common throughout the year, leading to a greater incidence of flash flooding. Winters and springs, when the flood risk is already high, would become 30 percent wetter than during the baseline decades.
Health: If tailpipe and smokestack emissions continue at today's levels, Illinois would experience more severe smog due to more extremely hot days. That would have serious consequences for public health, including a greater incidence of asthma attacks and other respiratory conditions. For example, ground-level ozone—the main component of smog—increases at temperatures higher than 90°F. That is particularly bad news for the 12 counties in and around Chicago and St. Louis where ozone levels already are higher than the Environmental Protection Agency's ozone standard.
Great Lakes: As average temperatures jump more than 7oF under the higher emissions scenario toward the end of the century, Great Lakes water levels are projected to decline. This primarily would be the result of increased evaporation caused by higher temperatures and a decrease in winter lake ice. Compared with the baseline period, Great Lakes water levels are projected to fall 1 to 2 feet by the end of the century in the higher emissions scenario. Under the lower emissions scenario, little change is projected because precipitation increases would balance increased evaporation caused by higher temperatures.
In June, 13 federal agencies released a comprehensive national report using the same methodology as the UCS report released today. Like the UCS report, the federal report concluded there is still time to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
Shortly after the national report came out, the House of Representatives passed "The American Clean Energy and Security Act," a landmark bill that would help build a new clean energy economy and launch the first national plan of action to address global warming. The Senate is currently considering a similar bill.
"The science is clear. We have to get started now so that our children and grandchildren don't suffer from deadly heat waves, and our farmers don't have to battle more extreme droughts and floods, and more pest and weed infestation," said Ron Burke, UCS's Midwest office director. "Our report shows how critical it is for Illinois' congressional delegation to support a bill that will get America running on clean energy."
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The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
