| July 10, 2008 |  |
Iran, US Both Hyping Missile Capability
Iran likely overstating missile capability; in response Bush administration overstates missile defenses.
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/securitynet/star-wars-25-years-later.html
Iran and the United States this week faced off in what the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) is calling a "battle of hype."
First, Iran made unconfirmed boasts about missiles it tested, UCS said. In response, the Bush administration cited Iran's missile test as a rationale for building a missile defense installation in Eastern Europe—despite the fact that the system would not be effective.
"Iran frequently exaggerates the capability of its missiles, and it appears it is continuing that tradition with this week's tests," said David Wright, a physicist and co-director of UCS's Global Security Program. "Meanwhile, the Bush administration is using Iran's missile tests to promote the U.S. anti-missile system in Eastern Europe that has never been shown to work in a real-world situation."
Iran claims that one of the ballistic missiles it tested on Wednesday had a range of 2,000 kilometers (km) carrying a payload of 1 ton, which would be a significant range increase over previous tests. More information is needed to check this claim, but, according to Wright, it is very unlikely that it is true. In February, Iran claimed to have launched a two-stage missile that later analysis determined was a one-stage Shahab missile.
The one-stage Shahab 3 missile is believed to have a range of 1,000 to 1,300 km with a 1-ton payload, and is believed to be a close relative of the North Korean Nodong missile, Wright explained. Extending the range to 2,000 km would require significant upgrades, such as adding a second stage—which appears to be ruled out by launch photographs—or by dramatic increases in the thrust or reductions in the missile's structural mass. "Given what we've seen of the Iranian program in past tests," he said, "both seem unlikely."
The Bush administration used the missile tests to advance its plans to expand the U.S. anti-missile system. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, for example, told reporters: [T]he tests are more evidence that the world needs the U.S. missile defense system."
Independent [D1] technical analyses by UCS and others, however, show that the system the United States is developing to intercept long-range missiles can be defeated by decoys and other countermeasures that could be built by any country capable of building a long-range missile. Moreover, the U.S. system is still in early stages of development and testing, and has yet to be tested against the kinds of warheads and decoys that would be expected in a real attack. The administration has been able to begin deploying the anti-missile system only by exempting it from the "fly before you buy" law that applies to all other major military systems.
"Rushing agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic to add a missile defense site in Europe is not a response to a threat, but an attempt to tie the hands of the next administration," Wright said. "Congress, the press and the public shouldn't be fooled by the hype. A more effective way to address a potential future threat would be to begin direct talks with Iran, which is what we did with the North Koreans."
For a brief UCS backgrounder on missile defense, go to www.ucsusa.org/global_security/missile_defense/star-wars-25th-anniversary.html.
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