| December 6, 2007 |  |
Leading Climate Scientists Call for Limiting Global Warming to Less than 2 Degrees Celsius above Pre-Industrial Levels
Statement by Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at UCS
BALI, INDONESIA (December 6, 2007) – More than 100 leading climate scientists issued a statement today at the United Nation's climate change summit, urging negotiators to draft a treaty limiting global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industry temperatures (roughly equivalent to a 2 degree Fahrenheit rise above current temperatures). The U.N. is hosting the summit in Bali, where delegates from nearly 190 nations are negotiating a follow-on treaty to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.
The European Union and other countries have already adopted the 2 degree warming limit. The United States has not set a limit.
The scientists' statement—whose signatories include many lead authors of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports—maintains that to avoid a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees, worldwide global warming emissions must be reduced at least 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
Nations must divide up these global reductions as dictated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which calls on nations to consider their emissions contributions and ability to make cuts. A 2007 study by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)—the leading U.S. science advocacy organization—and scientists at Stanford University and Texas Tech University found that to keep worldwide average temperatures below a 2 degree increase, the United States must cut its emissions by at least 80 percent below 2000 levels (equivalent to at least 78 percent below 1990 levels) by 2050—even with aggressive reductions by other industrialized and developing nations. (For the report, go to: www.ucsusa.org/emissionstarget.)
Below is a statement by Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at UCS and a lead author of the IPCC's fourth assessment report on mitigation:
"The delegates at the U.N. meeting must move toward a 2 degree Celsius target. Exceeding this temperature increase would pose severe risks to human health and natural systems, including the extinction of many species and an increased threat of extensive melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.
"We haven't a moment to waste. As the scientists' statement notes, global emissions must peak and decline in the next 10 to 15 years. Every year we wait increases the risk of catastrophic climate change and the rate of reductions needed to avoid it.
"Each country should base its reduction on the amount of global warming pollution it contributes to the atmosphere and its capacity to act. Both developing and industrialized nations must make robust cuts and the United States must cut emissions at least 80 percent below 2000 levels by 2050."
U.N. Bali conference note: On Saturday, December 8, from 10 am to noon, UCS and the Natural Resources Defense Council will host a side event to discuss a 2007 UCS report calling for a cut in U.S. emissions of at least 80 percent, the technology strategies capable of achieving these cuts, and U.S. climate change legislation. The event will take place in the Hydro GH room.
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
