| July 28, 2009 |  |
Unchecked Global Warming Would Mean More Heat Waves, More Flooding, and Reduced Crop Yields in Ohio, New Report Finds
Congress Considering Legislation that Could Help Ohio and the Rest of the Nation Avoid Worst Effects
CHICAGO (July 28, 2009) — If the United States does not significantly curb heat-trapping emissions, global warming will seriously harm Ohio's climate and economy, according to a new peer-reviewed report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report also found that a combination of clean energy policies—such as those currently under consideration by the U.S. Senate—would help blunt the extent and severity of global warming in Ohio and nationally.
"The Midwest climate is already changing. Over the past 50 years, we've seen higher average annual temperatures, more frequent downpours, longer growing seasons, and fewer cold snaps," said Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist and professor at Texas Tech University and a co-author of the report. "The future changes documented in this report are sobering. The silver lining is that we can avoid the worst of them if we substantially cut global warming emissions and start doing that now."
The report, "Confronting Climate Change in Ohio," describes how Ohio's climate could change under two scenarios: one assumes a business-as-usual increase in heat-trapping emissions from continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and the other assumes substantially lower emissions due to an increased reliance on clean energy sources. The report compared the two scenarios with a baseline period between 1961 and 1990.
The report found that toward the end of this century, under the higher, business-as-usual emissions scenario:
Climate: Average summer temperatures in Ohio would be as much as 12°F higher than the baseline period. During the 30-year baseline period, for example, Cincinnati experienced at least 18 days per summer when temperatures topped 90°F and less than two days with temperatures over 100°F. Unchecked global warming would force city residents to endure more than 85 days per summer with temperatures higher than 90°F and nearly 30 days with temperatures over 100°F. Cincinnatians also would face at least two heat waves per summer like the one that killed hundreds in Chicago in 1995. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, heat waves already kill more people in the United States each year than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and lightning combined.
In the northeast corner of the state, Cleveland would experience more than 60 days per summer with temperatures higher than 90°F compared with about nine days during the baseline decades. The city would experience three weeks per summer with temperatures higher than 100°F compared with less than one day before 1990. Clevelanders would have to endure at least one major heat wave per summer.
Agriculture: Crops and livestock in the state would suffer from substantially more heat stress, depressing crop yields and livestock productivity. Dairy cattle in Ohio rarely experienced heat stress during the baseline period, but they would experience it most summers toward the end of the century unless they are kept cool, for example, in costly air-conditioned barns. Warmer winters and a growing season as much as six weeks longer than before 1990 would enable pests, such as the corn earworm, to expand their range. Crop production would be threatened by changing rain patterns, ranging from wetter springs—which delay planting and increase flood risk—to nearly 5 percent less rain during the increasingly hot summers. Crop-damaging three- and seven-day heat waves would occur at least every other summer toward the end of the century. During the report's baseline period, three-day heat waves occurred about once a decade, and seven-day heat waves occurred one out of every 30 summers.
Extreme Weather: Heavy rains would become more common throughout the year, leading to a greater incidence of flash flooding. Winters and springs, when the flood risk is already high, would become 30 percent wetter than during the baseline decades.
Health: If tailpipe and smokestack emissions continue at the baseline levels, Ohio would experience more severe smog as the number of extremely hot days increases. That would have serious consequences for public health, including a greater incidence of asthma attacks and other respiratory conditions. For example, ground-level ozone—a dangerous air pollutant and the main component of smog—increases at temperatures higher than 90°F. That is particularly bad news for the 13 counties in and around the Cincinnati and Cleveland metro areas where ozone levels already are higher than the Environmental Protection Agency's ozone standard.
Great Lakes: The water levels of the Great Lakes are projected to fall between one and two feet compared with the baseline period.
In mid-June, 13 federal agencies released a comprehensive national report that reviewed the same higher and lower emissions scenarios that UCS analyzed in the report released today. The federal report similarly concluded there is still time to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
Shortly after the national report came out, the House of Representatives passed "The American Clean Energy and Security Act," a landmark bill that would help build a new clean energy economy and launch the first national plan of action to address global warming. The bill is currently under consideration in the Senate.
"The science is clear. We have to get started now so that our children and grandchildren don't suffer from deadly heat waves, and our farmers don't have to battle more extreme droughts and floods, and greater pest and weed infestation," said Ron Burke, UCS's Midwest office director. "Our report shows how critical it is for Ohio's congressional delegation to support a bill that will get America running on clean energy."
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
