| April 3, 2009 |  |
Missile Defense No Answer to North Korean Missiles
North Korea expected to launch satellite between April 4 and 8
If North Korea's upcoming satellite launch is successful, it will represent a significant step for the nation's missile program, but it does not mean that North Korea has a missile that could carry a nuclear weapon to intercontinental range, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Nor does it mean that the United States should bolster its missile defense capability.
"Whether or not North Korea's satellite launch is successful, missile defense advocates are likely to use it to argue for a boost in spending on missile defense," said David Wright, co-director of UCS's Global Security Program. "But missile defense is not the answer to long-range missile development by North Korea or other countries."
Wright, a physicist, pointed out that government and independent technical studies have concluded that decoys and other countermeasures can defeat anti-missile systems. These analyses show that any country that is capable of developing and building a long-range missile and nuclear weapon also would have the technologies to deploy effective countermeasures.
Moreover, he added, a September 1999 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on foreign missile developments noted that "Russia and China each have developed numerous countermeasures and probably are willing to sell the requisite technologies."
"Given the U.S. missile defense system's high profile, any country developing missiles to fire at the United States would incorporate decoys in its missile design," Wright said. "And it is highly unlikely the United States would know details about the decoys before an attack, giving any attacker the advantage of surprise."
The technical reality is that missile defense is not an effective way to stop a missile attack once an attack has been launched, Wright said. "If U.S. policymakers believe a missile attack is a significant security threat, it is irresponsible for them to advocate missile defense as a realistic response. Doing so could create a false sense of security, divert defense dollars from more important uses, and reduce any incentive to develop more effective measures to reduce a missile threat."
For more information on the North Korean satellite launch, see two articles by Wright:
"An Analysis of North Korea's Unha-2 Launch Vehicle," available here.
and
"Examining North Korea's Satellite Launch Vehicle," available here.
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
