| July 28, 2009 |  |
Unchecked Global Warming Would Mean More Heat Waves, More Flooding, and Reduced Crop Yields in Missouri, New Report Finds
Congress Considering Legislation that Could Help Missouri and the Rest of the Nation Avoid Worst Effects
CHICAGO (July 28, 2009) — If the United States does not significantly curb heat-trapping emissions, global warming will seriously harm Missouri's climate and economy, according to a new peer-reviewed report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report also found that a combination of clean energy policies—such as those currently under consideration by the U.S. Senate—would help blunt the extent and severity of global warming in Missouri and nationally.
"The Midwest climate is already changing. Over the past 50 years, we've seen higher average annual temperatures, more frequent downpours, longer growing seasons, and fewer cold snaps," said Don Wuebbles, a climate scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a co-author of the report. "The future changes documented in this report are sobering. The silver lining is that we can avoid the worst of them if we substantially cut global warming emissions starting in the very near future."
The report, "Confronting Climate Change in Missouri," describes how Missouri's climate could change under two scenarios: one assumes a business-as-usual increase in heat-trapping emissions from continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and the other assumes substantially lower emissions due to an increased reliance on clean energy sources. The report compared the two scenarios with a baseline period between 1961 and 1990.
The report found that toward the end of this century, under the higher, business-as-usual emissions scenario:
CLIMATE: Average summer temperatures in Missouri would be as much as 14°F higher than the baseline period. During the 30-year baseline period, for example, St. Louis experienced at least 36 days per summer when temperatures topped 90°F and less than three days with temperatures over 100°F. Unchecked global warming would force city residents to endure more than 100 days per summer with temperatures higher than 90°F and at least 43 days per summer over 100°F. St. Louis residents also would face up to six summer heat waves like the one that killed hundreds in Chicago in 1995. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, heat waves already kill more people in the United States each year than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and lightning combined.
AGRICULTURE: Crops and livestock would experience substantially more heat stress, depressing crop yields and livestock productivity. Dairy cattle in Missouri rarely experienced heat stress during the baseline period, but they would experience it most summers toward the end of the century unless they are kept cool, for example, in costly air-conditioned barns.. Warmer winters and a growing season as much as six weeks longer than before 1990 would enable pests, such as the corn earworm, to expand their range. Crop production would be threatened by changing rain patterns, ranging from wetter springs—which delay planting and increase flood risk—to 20 percent less rain during increasingly hot summers. Crop-damaging three- and seven-day heat waves would occur nearly every summer toward the end of the century. During the report's baseline period, three-day heat waves occurred once every three years across the state. Seven-day heat waves occurred once every four years in the south part of the state and once a decade in the north.
EXTREME WEATHER: Heavy rains would become more common throughout the year, leading to a greater incidence of flash flooding. Winters and springs, when the flood risk is already high, would become 20 percent wetter than during the baseline decades.
Petree Eastman, assistant city manager of University City, a suburb of St. Louis, said more costly and dangerous floods are already occurring in her city. "Last year we had a major flood that caused millions of dollars in damages and killed two people," she said. "Three major storms since then have caused repeated storm and flood damage, leaving residents battle-fatigued and with no immediate options. Unless we collectively, as communities, take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can expect the weather to continue to wreak havoc on our citizens."
HEALTH: If tailpipe and smokestack emissions continue at the baseline levels, Missouri will experience more severe smog as the number of extremely hot days increases. That would have serious consequences for public health, including a greater incidence of asthma attacks and other respiratory conditions. For example, ground-level ozone—a dangerous air pollutant and the main component of smog—increases at temperatures higher than 90°F. That is particularly bad news for the five counties in and around St. Louis that do not meet the Environmental Protection Agency's federal ozone standard.
In mid-June, 13 federal agencies released a comprehensive national report that reviewed the same higher and lower emissions scenarios UCS analyzed in the report released today. The federal report also concluded there is still time to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.
Shortly after the national report came out, the House of Representatives passed "The American Clean Energy and Security Act," a landmark bill that would help build a new clean energy economy and launch the first national plan of action to address global warming. The bill is currently under consideration in the Senate.
"The science is clear. We have to get started now so that our children and grandchildren don't suffer from deadly heat waves, and our farmers don't have to battle more extreme droughts and floods, and greater pest and weed infestation," said Ron Burke, UCS's Midwest office director. "Our report shows how critical it is for Missouri's congressional delegation to support a bill that will get America running on clean energy."
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
