| February 23, 2010 |  |
News Stories on Manufactured Scandals Ignore Scientific Urgency
News stories focusing on errors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 2007 report and stolen emails from climate scientists could do more to put climate change science in context. Many stories correctly note that these manufactured controversies do not call into question the scientific consensus that human activity is driving global warming. But stories also should note that studies conducted after deadlines for submission to the 2007 IPCC report have found that climate change is happening faster than previously expected and the consequences are likely to be more severe than the IPCC initially projected.
According to a backgrounder on the latest science by the Union of Concerned Scientists, more carbon dioxide is staying in the atmosphere as the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide has diminished; sea levels are rising faster than the IPCC's best estimate, which was based on an average of several climate models; and the Arctic ice sheet is diminishing more rapidly than scientists expected at the time the IPCC released its 2007 report.
The December 2009 "Copenhagen Diagnosis," a report by 26 independent researchers (about half of whom were IPCC authors) based on more than 200 peer-reviewed scientific papers, many of which were published after the IPPC's 2007 report, draws similar conclusions:
- Satellite and direct measurements demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
- Arctic sea ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea ice melt during 2007 to 2009 was about 40 percent greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
- Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years. Accounting for ice sheets and glaciers, global sea level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of as much as 2 meters considered the upper limit by this time. This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC. Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters is likely over the next few centuries.
- In 2008, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were approximately 40 percent higher than in 1990. Even if emissions do not increase beyond today's levels, within only 20 years, the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.
According to the press release announcing the publication of the "Copenhagen Diagnosis," "The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to 10 years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change. To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century."
The Union of Concerned Scientists puts rigorous, independent science to work to solve our planet's most pressing problems. Joining with citizens across the country, we combine technical analysis and effective advocacy to create innovative, practical solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.
