| July 1, 2009 |  |
North Korea May Be Preparing Another Rocket Launch
Reports of activities in North Korea suggest that the country may be preparing for another rocket launch, although there are conflicting intelligence reports about how soon that might happen.
While some reports have speculated that North Korea may launch a missile attack on Hawaii, according to David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program, such an attack seems highly unlikely.
The failure of its April launch to place a satellite in orbit suggests that North Korea might intend another satellite launch using the same kind of launch vehicle, the Unha-2.
Analysis based on information from the April test has led to better understanding of North Korea's rocket capability, Wright said. That analysis shows that the Unha launcher represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers. It would have the capability to reach the continental United States with a payload of 1 ton or more if North Korea modified it for use as a ballistic missile.
However, the Unha launcher appears to be constructed from components that were probably not manufactured in North Korea, he added. It is likely that these critical rocket components were acquired from other countries, and in particular from Russia. If this is true, it could mean that North Korea's missile capability could be significantly constrained if it can be denied further access to such components.
Wright recently co-authored an essay for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that offers an analysis of the April launch and the Unha-2 launcher.
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