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The Target Set for Missile Defense Test IFT-9 (2002)

David Wright
October 11, 2002

Summary

In May 2002, the Bush administration announced that it would classify information about the target sets of future missile defense tests. While the Pentagon has not released detailed information about the upcoming test (IFT-9) scheduled for October 14, this paper presents what can be learned about the test from public statements and from a technical analysis of previous tests.

Based on this information, we conclude that the decoys used in the test will appear significantly different to the kill vehicle's sensors from the mock warhead, so that the mock warhead will be easily distinguished from the decoys. As a result, the test will not be a demanding or realistic test of the ability of the defense to discriminate the warhead from decoys in realistic scenarios—which remains a key issue in the development of a missile defense system.