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A Question of Reliability Every year since 1997, the nation’s nuclear weapons laboratories have certified that all U.S. nuclear warheads are safe and reliable, and that renewed nuclear explosive testing is not currently needed to gauge reliability. However, the laboratories have recently voiced concern that warheads may not be reliable over the long term. It must be noted that the definition of “unreliable” in this context is a weapon that falls short of its designed yield by more than 10 percent. In other words, an “unreliable” nuclear weapon can still produce a devastating explosion. A weapon with a 300-kiloton yield could be deemed unreliable if it exploded with a 270-kiloton yield—13 times more energy than that released by the Nagasaki bomb.
A nuclear weapon’s reliability depends on the primary fission reaction, which in principle can be prevented from triggering the secondary fusion reaction by many variables. For example, if the chemical explosives surrounding the spherical plutonium pit do not detonate simultaneously and symmetrically, the plutonium will not implode properly and will not release all of its energy. However, the chemical explosives and all the other non-nuclear components that make up a nuclear weapon can be fully tested without inducing fission, and the United States conducts such tests on an ongoing basis. The only component that cannot be tested without actually setting off a nuclear explosion is the plutonium pit itself, and the United States conducted its last nuclear explosive test in 1992. Every type of U.S. nuclear weapon currently deployed underwent explosive testing, but it is theoretically possible that the properties of the plutonium could change as it ages, resulting in a weaker primary. Understanding Plutonium Plutonium is a relatively young element; scientists produced it for the first time in 1941. Since the oldest plutonium pits currently deployed are only several decades old, it has been unclear how they might change over longer periods. However, there are certain known physical properties that could affect the viability of the plutonium pit. As plutonium ages, it slowly emits high-energy alpha particles (helium nuclei consisting of two protons and two neutrons) that can damage the pit as they bore through nearby plutonium atoms. Over time, bubbles of helium gas can also build up, causing the metal to expand. Because the implosion of the pit induced by chemical explosives could be affected by these imperfections, it is conceivable that a weapon using “old” plutonium might not explode with the intended yield. On the other hand, plutonium repairs at least some of the alpha particle-related damage to itself through a process called self-annealing, in which the plutonium atoms fill in the gaps made by the alpha particles. Because these processes are occurring simultaneously, it is difficult to calculate their net effect on pit integrity. The oldest warheads in the U.S. weapons stockpile were assembled almost 30 years ago. Until very recently, the minimum lifetime of plutonium pits was conservatively estimated to be 45 years, which would mean that the pits in every U.S. warhead might have to be replaced within the next two decades. This is the rationale behind the Bush administration’s proposed Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program, which would redesign and replace all 10,000 U.S. warheads. Over the past several years, however, the U.S. weapons laboratories have effectively eliminated this rationale by conducting “accelerated aging” experiments to re-evaluate the age at which reliability would realistically decline. By simulating the behavior of aged plutonium, scientists concluded that all existing U.S. plutonium pits have minimum lifetimes of 85 years, and most will remain reliable for at least 100 years. (The lifetimes could be much longer, but further experiments are needed.) As these results make clear U.S. thermonuclear weapons will remain highly reliable for many decades, undercutting the primary reason for the Bush administration’s RRW plans. For other reasons why this plan represents a step backward in U.S. nuclear policy, visit the UCS website. Robert Nelson is a senior scientist in the Global Security Program.
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