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Congress Is Pushing Back on the Trump Fuel Economy Rollback. Why Aren’t Auto Companies?

The administration considered a number of alternatives in its proposed rulemaking, though none would yield even half the benefits of the current standards. Proposals from automaker trade groups, it turns out, were not any better. Honda’s proposal represents the highwater mark for the industry, though it, too, falls well short of the current standards.

On Thursday, two House Energy and Commerce subcommittees are holding a joint hearing examining the Trump administration’s rollback of fuel efficiency and emissions standards for passenger cars and trucks. The witnesses include the regulators moving forward with this disastrous plan and at least one of the key state regulators opposing it, but one voice likely to be missing from the hearing will be the auto manufacturers themselves, who set this rollback in motion by requesting the President undo the rules in the first place.

Auto companies refuse to own their role in the rollback

The auto companies have recently tried a new tack in its media strategy to urge the public to forget its role in this mess, playing the woe-begone victim of an administration ignoring both science and the public interest in a letter to the President urging him to rethink the current proposal. And unfortunately, many in the media have adopted the frame precisely as the auto companies intended, painting a story of the letter as an indictment of the President’s policies.

Unfortunately, the media has the automakers’ letter all wrong—it shows nothing new, and certainly isn’t pushing back on the outcome. The auto companies once again asked for a bevy of carve-outs, loopholes, and weak standards. They may be trying to hide the rust under a new coat of paint, but it’s the same old jalopy they’ve been trying to sell since day one—the President is giving them exactly what they asked for, but it’s just they really wish his administration had crafted a more legally defensible escape hatch.

The telltale sign is in the automakers’ letter to California. In their letters, the auto companies whine about the lack of a 50-state standard as a result of the administration’s proposal, but if the auto companies were so concerned about the need for a 50-state standard, they’d acknowledge that we already have one on the books that’s saving consumers at the pump. Instead, they continue to beg California not to exercise its right to protect its citizens while trying to weaken those rules.

Auto companies aren’t the victims—consumers are

While one might want better from companies, it’s hard to be surprised. This is an industry with a history of fighting regulations at every turn. As Brett Smith of the Center for Automotive Research puts it, “They are looking out for their own best interest, as every company and every person does at the end of the day.”

Of course, that’s precisely why regulators must set strong standards—these corporations aren’t actually interested in the public good, and they certainly aren’t going to do it themselves. And as a result of the auto companies’ ask for weaker standards and an administration all too willing to give it to them, consumers are going to pay more for gas as we veer towards environmental catastrophe. Thanks, guys.

Updated analysis shows auto companies still asking for a rollback

As I wrote last year, the auto industry has been asking for a rollback at every turn, damn the consequences to consumers and the environment. To more accurately assess the impacts of the flexibilities requested by the auto companies and their trade groups, I’ve recently modeled how the various automaker proposals would affect future compliance strategies. For example, incentives for electric vehicles could encourage more deployment of electric vehicles, but weaker overall stringency disincentivizes all technology deployment—our modeling examines the interaction of these various requests and considers the trade-offs.

Even the most beneficial positions by major automakers would represent a step backwards from the standards we have today, even if the stringency of the underlying curves were left intact. Our latest analysis (in red) continues to show that the magnitude of some of these proposals for “flexibilities” are so large that they could erode the standards as much as the flat-line alternative preferred by the Agency we have noted here as a “rollback.”

The end result is not particularly surprising—our updated analysis falls smack in the middle of our previous estimates (Figure 1), meaning that while automaker proposals may not be quite as bad as we feared, they are also not as good as we had hoped.

Automakers and administration seem to be in alignment

Earlier this year, it was reported that the administration may adjust its proposal upward up to 0.5% improvement per year (Figure 2, Alternatives 2/3), slightly better than the original proposal but just 1/10th of the nearly 5% per year required under current standards. Even doubling such a weak proposal to 1% would do little to mitigate its adverse consequences (Figure 2, Alternative 4).

The administration considered a number of alternatives in its proposed rulemaking, though none would yield even half the benefits of the current standards. Proposals from automaker trade groups, it turns out, were not any better. Honda’s proposal represents the highwater mark for the industry, though it, too, falls well short of the current standards.

The Auto Alliance’s proposal falls right in line with such an adjustment by the administration in terms of its impact on emissions and fuel use…which is to say, not much improvement. Furthermore, its comments on the proposal included telling the administration how it could bolster its flimsy legal basis for the awful regulation that, when finalized, will inevitably wind up in court.

The Global Automakers’ proposal is better, but essentially amounts to exactly the same thing as is rumored the administration is putting forth, except starting a year later in 2022 instead of 2021. One more year of strong regulation may be better than nothing, but not much better.

Will automakers push for improvements or side with the administration?

Honda’s is the only proposal which goes beyond the proposals offered by the administration. While it would represent nearly a 30 percent loss in emissions from the current standards, that’s only half as bad as its trade association’s proposal, making them one of few automakers who are on the record supporting something better than the administration has offered. During EPA’s actions under then-Administrator Scott Pruitt which started this rollback fiasco, Volkswagen supported maintaining the current standards as-is, but they’ve gone quiet since. Only Tesla has been a consistently vocal advocate among vehicle manufacturers.

Given everything at stake, it is up to these and other automakers to distance themselves from the administration’s proposal right now–and not just by asking for a different, loophole-friendly standard that harms the environment to an equal degree. For example, if a company like Ford wants to tout its environmental bona fides, it should be working with California to press forward with the strong standards working for American consumers today, not collaborating with its trade group and the administration to erode them.

The administration is getting ready to finalize a proposal that will hurt the economy, undermine national security, and increase emissions. When this regulation inevitably winds up in court, it will be incumbent upon the auto companies to side with the states opposing this destructive policy. The auto industry supported rolling back these standards—they must now fight them or forever be associated with the negative repercussions on their consumers and the environment.

Here’s Why New York Should Pass the CCPA

Photo: Zach Miles/Unsplash

New York State is on the verge of passing one of the nation’s most ambitious economy-wide climate laws.

The Community and Climate Protection Act, or CCPA, would not only require New York to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2040, but also pave the way for the complete transition of New York’s economy to clean energy. The CCPA is the result of years of work by grassroots activists and leaders within the New York Renews coalition, demonstrating that with persistence and determination, momentum on the ground has the potential to achieve big things in climate policy.

Ensuring that New York is on a path to becoming a national climate leader is not only about the future – it’s about today, too. New Yorkers are already feeling the impacts across the state, from superstorms to extreme heat. With each passing year of inaction, we face increasingly dire threats from climate change.

Elected officials in Albany have only a handful of days left before the end of this legislative session, but we cannot afford to wait another year before ensuring that New York has a climate law on the books. If New York succeeds in passing this historic legislation, it will be critical that state officials take a hard look at the largest and growing source of greenhouse gas emissions: transportation.

Tailpipe emissions from cars, trucks, and buses are the largest source of pollution in New York, as it is throughout the United States, and is responsible for 43% of New York’s climate emissions. Transportation is also a leading source of particulate matter and other forms of toxic air pollution that harm the health of our communities every day, particularly communities near highways and ports.

Implementation of the CCPA must therefore include a big-picture vision for how New York builds a clean, modern transportation system that works for everyone. Here’s what we believe to be the essential components of that vision:

We should electrify everything

Electric vehicles (EVs) are here, and they are increasingly available in all models and vehicle classes. Electric vehicles are also awesome. It’s a better mousetrap. Electric engines use energy far more efficiently, which means a great automotive experience with lower costs for consumers. They have fewer moving parts, which mean lower maintenance costs and greater longevity. By plugging into the grid and managing EV charging strategically, we can power EVs with renewable energy, make our electric grid more efficient, and help facilitate the transition to renewable energy.

But the better mousetrap doesn’t always win in the constrained market for vehicles. Gasoline and diesel vehicles still have major market advantages, in terms of infrastructure, consumer expectations, and upfront vehicle cost. Transitioning the 11 million vehicles operating in New York to electric vehicles will be a challenge that requires more ambitious policies. We need to build out the infrastructure that makes keeping an EV fully charged even more convenient than filling up at a gas station. We need to expand incentives to reduce the upfront vehicle cost for consumers, especially low- and moderate-income consumers and rural residents who currently cannot afford an EV. And we need to do more to make the buying of an EV a simple and easy process for consumers.

Electric vehicles are not only a solution for passenger vehicles, but also for heavy duty vehicles such as buses and trucks. We commend New York City for their commitment to achieve the complete electrification of their transit bus fleet by 2040 and we encourage other cities and RTAs operating in New York to make similar commitments. New funding from New York State could help transit agencies and fleet operators replace diesel engines with zero-emission alternatives, which in turn would help reduce fuel and maintenance costs and improve service for riders.

We should invest in alternatives to driving, through improved public and active transportation

Electrification alone cannot solve all the problems impacting New York’s transportation system. We also need to do more to provide New Yorkers with alternatives to driving, through enhanced public transportation, and improved infrastructure for walking, biking, and micromobility solutions such as electric scooters.

This year the legislature took a big step toward improving public transportation in the New York City metro area by approving congestion pricing and allocating significant new resources to the MTA. But we know that we need to do more to fully fund the national treasure that is the MTA and make it the first-class public transportation system New York City needs and deserves. And we also know that we need to do much more to improve public transportation services throughout the state. All New Yorkers deserve to be able to get where they need to go without a car, regardless of where they live.

We should build more affordable housing near public transportation

Issues of transportation emissions and congestion are inextricably linked to housing and land use. People want to live in neighborhoods that have strong public transportation services – if they can afford it. But for many low- and moderate-income New Yorkers, finding affordable housing close to public transportation is impossible. Expanding public transportation services to new communities without investing in affordable housing can inadvertently encourage gentrification. Climate policy in New York should look to expand the production of permanently affordable housing near public transportation so that more New Yorkers can get to work and the places they need to go without driving.

Solutions should focus on communities shouldering the greatest burdens from transportation pollution

Pollution from transportation impacts all communities in New York, but the communities suffering under the weight of the greatest burdens are those near major traffic corridors, highways, and ports. These impacts fall disproportionately hard on communities of color. For example, in the Bronx, where over 70% of the population is non-white, over 20% of children have asthma and the rate of asthma-related deaths is over three times the national average. We believe that the current CCPA language directing 40% of funds towards solutions in disadvantaged communities would be a good start and a potential model for other states looking to solve transportation challenges in these communities.

We should create a market-based limit on transportation emissions

The CCPA would also authorize one of the most important tools in achieving limits on emissions from transportation and other sectors: a market-based program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

New York State already participates in one market-based climate program: the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. RGGI works by setting an overall cap on emissions from power plants, requiring polluters to purchase allowances based on their emissions, and investing the proceeds from those allowance sales in efficiency and clean energy. RGGI, together with other smart programs like the Renewable Energy Standard as well as the switch from coal to gas, has helped put the Northeast region on track to reduce emissions 65% by 2030.

An expansion of this policy model into transportation fuels could create an enforceable limit on overall emissions from transportation and provide one source of funding for the investments we need in clean vehicles, public transportation, and affordable housing.

Our regional partners are at work on a policy that would build on the success of RGGI. Last December, nine states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic along with Washington DC made a commitment to design a market-based program similar to RGGI, covering transportation fuels through the Transportation and Climate Initiative. The CCPA would authorize New York State to join this important initiative.

Enact the CCPA

This is the time to act.

It has taken activists and champions years to get to this point, but today the Governor, the Senate and the Assembly have all indicated their support for ambitious and comprehensive climate legislation this session. It is important to get the details right, but it is also important to get this legislation done so that that hard work of implementing the CCPA can begin.

Photo: Zach Miles/Unsplash

Top Clean Cars for 2019 and 2020 

Photo: www.everycarlisted.com

Looking to clean up your commute? Choosing a less polluting vehicle is one of the biggest things you can do to combat climate change and fortunately for you, I just got back from the DC and NY Auto Shows where automakers displayed the latest and greatest clean vehicles coming to a showroom near you.

Electric vehicles were prominently displayed at this year’s auto shows; for good reason. EVs are cheaper and cleaner to drive than their gasoline-powered counterparts and are beginning to appear as SUVs and pickups, which are the most popular vehicle types in the U.S. Want to find out how clean an EV is in your area? Check out this handy emissions calculator.

2019 Hyundai Kona EV

This crossover utility EV is already a fan favorite, having generated strong reviews from auto reporters and consumer advocates since it was introduced to the U.S. in January 2019. It not only has good looks, but also good performance. The Kona EV gets 258 miles on a full charge from its 64 kWh battery pack, which can be filled up to 80 percent in just 75 minutes from a 50kW level 3 charger, or to 100 percent when plugged into a level 2 (240V) charger overnight.  The Kia Niro EV, the Kona’s sister car, has similar specs.

The only bad news here is the Kona EV is exclusively available on the West Coast and in Northeast states (specifically, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state and Washington D.C.). Should sales of this newcomer prove strong, Hyundai may be pressed to expand its availability but until then, you need to travel to a state where it is sold to take possession of this new EV offering from Hyundai.

2019 Volkswagen e-Golf

Volkswagen is slowly making amends for their transgressions and are beginning to offer electric options across their vehicle classes. One of the reasons why I’m excited about the 2019 VW e-Golf is its price. This all electric hatchback starts at $32,790 and is still eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit – bringing the base MSRP down to $25,290. Considering that the average new vehicle cost $37,577 at the end of 2018, getting a nice VW for around $25k is a great deal. Though the e-Golf offers slightly less range than its competitors (estimated 125 miles on a full charge), it’s a good size – easily fitting 4 adults with bags in the trunk – and has plenty of electric range for most daily driving. Its price and features earned the e-Golf “best electric vehicle in the compact class” honors from Car & Driver, and an overall 10Best award for 2019. Similar to the Kona EV, the availabiilty of the e-Golf is limited to the “ZEV states” for now, but VW plans to bring more EVs to all 50 states as soon as 2022.

2019 Chrysler Pacifica Plug-In Hybrid

Minivan alert! Do you need to shuttle gremlins to soccer practice or the mall but also want to cut your carbon footprint? Then this 2019 offering from Chrysler may be for you, as it is currently the only plug-in minivan for sale in the U.S. With the ability to travel 32 miles on a full charge, the Pacifica Hybrid can avoid filling up with gas for weeks or even months depending on your daily driving needs. It is also eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit, which brings its price more in line with other traditional minivans.

When the battery is depleted, the Pacifica Hybrid operates like a traditional gasoline-electric hybrid, and achieves considerably better fuel economy than its gas-only minivan competitors. EPA rates the Pacifica Hybrid as capable of 32 miles per gallon combined in traditional hybrid mode, which is 10 mpg more than the Toyota Sienna, Honda Odyssey, and standard Pacifica. With its 16.5-gallon fuel tank, the Pacifica Hybrid also offers an outstanding 520 miles of total driving range, plenty for weekend warrior’ing or long road tips.

2020 Toyota Corolla Traditional Hybrid

For the car shoppers who can’t use an EV because they don’t have a place to plug it in every night, this traditional gasoline-electric hybrid might be a better choice.  The 2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid comes in at a MSRP of just $23,880 and offers an estimated 52 MPG combined with the reliability consumers have come to expect from Toyota. Though the Prius has been the king or queen of traditional hybrids, the 2020 Corolla is a great alternative with a a more innocuous styling package.

2020 Rivian R1T

Based in Plymouth Michigan, start-up automaker Rivian recently raised funds to launch production of an all-electric pickup truck (the R1T) and an all-electric SUV they unveiled at the LA Auto Show this past November. Pickups and SUVs are the most popular vehicle classes in the U.S., so if Rivian cracks the code at producing an affordable electric version of these vehicles, they may be onto something huge. The Rivian R1T pickup is expected to deliver up to 400-plus miles of range, have an 11,000-pound tow rating and a cargo capacity of 1,760 pounds, go 0-60 in 4.9 seconds, and have off-road capability. But these impressive specs will come at a price. The R1T is expected to start at about $69,000 before any tax credits, but if you need a pickup truck and are tired of burning too much oil as you carry your cargo around, check out the Rivian R1T.

Photo: www.everycarlisted.com Photo: Hyndai Photo: Volkswagen Photo: Chrysler Photo Corolla Photo: Rivian

The Future of Transportation Is Electric

Photo: Kārlis Dambrāns/Wikimedia Commons

It’s clearer every day: the future of transportation is electric. We should be cheering this transition—and encouraging it, because along with the benefits for drivers, electrifying transportation is going to be a critical piece of fighting climate change.

Unfortunately, for many observers, skepticism about electric vehicles (EVs) has become something like an article of faith. Mired in an obsolete set of facts, electric-vehicle naysayers are making the same arguments they’ve made for years even as technology speeds forward.

Take columnist George Will, who launched a broadside against electric vehicles last week. In casting doubt on the viability of EVs, Will is revealing that he hasn’t updated his understanding of the technology or the market in a decade. His argument relies upon outdated, misleading and just-plain-wrong evidence, undermining his thesis completely.

Here’s the truth. Electric vehicles are considerably cleaner than gasoline-powered cars, and this advantage is only increasing with time. Increasingly, coal-fired power generation is declining, and the share of our electricity produced by renewables is increasing. Indeed, Will inadvertently makes this point in his article. He points out that 27 percent of our electricity comes from coal power plants but leaves out entirely the fact that a decade earlier, coal was the largest source of electricity at almost half (48 percent) of all generation. We’re on the right path.

Coal-fired electricity generation has fallen significantly over the last decade, as natural gas and renewable electricity generation has increased. Replacing coal power plants with renewable sources of electricity will make electric vehicles even cleaner. Nuclear and hydroelectric power generation is not shown as they have remained largely unchanged at 20 and 7 percent of generation respectively. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

This move to cleaner electricity means switching from gasoline to electricity to power our cars and trucks will lower global warming emissions. Our most recent analysis (based on 2016 electricity generation statistics) shows that the average EV driven in the US produces global warming emissions equal to an 80 mpg gasoline car. And that number is even better in parts of the US, like California and the Northeastern states, where coal is lower and renewables higher in the mix.

In addition to being the biggest source of global warming emissions in the US, transportation is also a major source of air pollution that harms public health. Reducing the amount of pollution from tailpipes will have real benefits for people living in densely-populated cities or along major highways.

Electric vehicles are cheaper to operate and maintain than traditional gasoline vehicles. While the price of oil is volatile, the cost of electricity is low and stable, and in most cities driving electric can save a household hundreds of dollars every year. And as the market grows, the price of electric vehicles has fallen dramatically, with 80 percent of electric vehicles sold in 2018 having a base suggested retail price under $50,000.

An electric future is not just the hope of EV owners and engineers. Increasingly, both automakers and governments around the world are looking to an electric future as a way to cut oil use, reduce the risks of climate change and build a cleaner, more sustainable future. Major automakers including Volkswagen, General Motors, and Toyota have all explicitly stated their belief that the future is electric.

We’re headed toward an electric future—but it’s in our interest to make sure it happens fast, because the urgency of the climate crisis demands it, and because we can’t afford to get left behind as the world makes the shift to innovative new technologies. That’s why it still makes sense for the federal government to encourage electric vehicle adoption. We need to build a strong electric market and keep the US competitive in a carbon-conscious world.  Companies will prioritize research, development, and manufacturing where policies encourage electric vehicles. Pulling back on electric car incentives too early could harm both US manufacturing and drivers as these global car companies prioritize progress outside the US.

In insisting these incentives are unnecessary, Will uses outdated and misleading data. For example, he writes “after a decade of production, moral exhortations and subsidies, electric cars are a fraction of 1 percent of all vehicle sales.”  The truth is far different: In 2018 (7 years, not 10, after the debut of the Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt), electric vehicles were 2 percent of new car sales in the US and 8 percent in market leader California. Sales are picking up and driving economies of scale in the EV industry, but the next few years are critical to have EV reach purchase price parity with conventional vehicles.

Mr. Will also picks up a favorite argument of the current administration: US cars and trucks are only a slice of global emissions, so why bother moving to a cleaner technology? Yes, our cars and trucks are not the only source of emissions, but they are a growing source in the US. And to avoid the worst impacts of climate change we need to greatly reduce emissions from all sectors, transportation included. The US is already seeing greatly increased costs from disasters linked to climate change, and the federal government warns that future costs of global warming to the US alone could be in hundreds of billions of dollars per year from extreme heat deaths, labor productivity losses, and coastal flooding damage. Implementing policies like extending the federal EV tax credit now to reduce emissions from transportation makes sense.

Finally, George Will also misleads with his discussion of the average income of those that benefit from the federal electric vehicle tax credit. The analysis he points only looks at the early electric car purchases (2014 and earlier) and crucially ignores leases of electric cars. Because many lower-priced electric cars were leased (and some available only for lease), the income data presented is skewed towards higher-income purchasers.

Will’s refusal to look at the latest evidence undermines his case against electric vehicle incentives. The real world has moved past his outdated arguments—and to refuse to update his understanding means he’s being dishonest with his readers.

Photo: Kārlis Dambrāns/Wikimedia Commons

How Can we Get More Electric Trucks on the Road?

Tesla semi truck.

California is considering a policy to drive sales of electric trucks like it has done for sales of electric cars.

Electric cars in California

You may know that California has the largest share of electric cars in the United States. But it’s surprisingly large.

Despite having 11 percent of the country’s vehicles and 12 percent of the country’s population, California has roughly 50 percent of the 1 million electric cars sold in the United States (value includes plug-in hybrids).

In 2018, full electric (95,000) and plug-in hybrid (63,000) electric cars represented 8 percent of all passenger vehicle sales in California (car, SUV, light pickup truck). These impressive numbers were driven largely by sales of the Tesla Model 3, which had its first full year of sales, totaling over 50,000 in the state. Sales of the Tesla Model S, Tesla Model X, and Chevy Bolt totaled 10,000 each.

What makes California a leader in electric cars? A main reason is a policy requiring car manufacturers to sell electric vehicles in the state.

California is considering a similar policy for trucks

Trucks1 and buses make up just 7 percent of vehicles on the road in California, but 20 percent of global warming emissions and 40 percent of smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from the transportation sector, the largest sector for both types of emissions in California.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) recently released the latest iteration of a policy concept that would do for trucks what it has done for cars: set zero-emission sales targets. If set at the right level, such targets could transform the truck sector from one fueled by diesel to one powered by electricity and hydrogen.

The standard has undergone two and a half years of public workshops and information gathering. It will undergo another year of public input before it is voted on.

Here’s where things stand

The sales standard proposed by CARB would result in approximately 5 percent of trucks (84,000) operating in California as zero-emission vehicles by 2030.

Viewed from the limited number of electric trucks on the road in California today (less than a thousand), 84,000 zero-emission trucks might sound like a lot. But viewed in terms of the entire 1.5 million trucks operating in the state, 95 percent would still be powered by a combustion engine in 2030.

The table below summarizes the sales standard proposed by CARB. It sets different standards for different categories of trucks, Class 2b-3; Class 4-8 vocational trucks; and Class 7-8 tractor (semi) trucks.

Table showing proposed sales standards (percentages) and estimated sales of zero-emission trucks in California.

Table showing total truck sales estimated from the proposed sales standards for zero-emission trucks in California.

Numbers are based on today’s truck sales (100,000 trucks per year2) and today’s truck population (1.5 million trucks across all categories) in California. These numbers also assume no trading of truck credits with different values across the Class 2b-3, Class 4-8 vocational, and Class 7-8 tractor categories which CARB has proposed allowing.

How has the policy changed over the last two years?

CARB’s original proposal, released two years ago, started at a 2.5 percent sales standard in 2023 and increased to 15 percent in 2030. The most recent proposal starts a year later and works out to be 3 percent of total sales in 2024, increasing to 25 percent of total sales in 2030.

The original draft included Class 2b pickup trucks but excluded Class 8 trucks. The most recent draft flips that and includes Class 8 trucks but excludes pickups until 2027. Plug-in hybrid trucks (e.g., have a battery with ~20 miles in range combined with a combustion engine) would be counted as one-third of a full electric truck.

Using the most recent sales numbers, the original proposal would have resulted in 72,000 zero-emission trucks by 2030, compared to 84,000 trucks with the new proposal. This increase, small in the context of the 1.5 million trucks in California, does not match the advances in truck technology and purchases that we’ve seen in the last two years, or the $579 million approved for investments in electric truck and bus charging infrastructure.

Just last week, electric utilities in California, Oregon, and Washington  announced they will study how to provide charging infrastructure for trucks along I-5.  We’ve come a long way since electric cars first hit the market in late 2010; even interstate electric truck travel is now considered within reach.

A more ambition standard is needed

Improving local air quality and reducing California’s contribution to global warming will require more than 5 percent of trucks to be zero-emission by 2030. So, the overall sales targets need to be higher.

For a sense of scale, 225,000 zero-emission trucks would be just 15 percent of trucks on the road today. Analysis by CARB indicates that 100,000 cleaner trucks are needed in the Los Angeles area alone to meet 2023 air quality standards. And we can’t get to net-zero carbon emissions by 2045, a goal set by Governor Brown last year, without significant deployment of electric trucks.

In the Class 2b-3 category, there is room for strengthening the standard (currently tops out at 15 percent of sales in 2030), especially if pickup trucks have a delayed timeline as drafted. Some of the vehicles most suited for electrification today, such as small delivery vans, small box trucks, and shuttle buses, are in the Class 2b-3 category.

The sales standard should also start in 2024 for Class 7 and 8 tractor trucks, rather than being delayed until 2027. Electrification of these trucks is particularly important as they travel greater distances and have lower fuel efficiencies than other types of trucks. Several battery and fuel cell electric tractor trucks are planned, if not in demonstration already.

The benefits of moving faster on truck electrification include reductions in global warming emissions and improvements in air quality. And recent UCS analysis shows that reducing emissions from vehicles is critical for addressing the inequitable exposure to air pollution from cars and trucks experienced by low income and communities of color in California.

Detailed analysis by CARB also indicates significant financial benefits are possible with truck electrification. In all three of the truck applications examined by CARB, it was estimated to be comparable if not cheaper to own and operate a battery electric truck than a diesel truck in 2024, when the proposed standard would take effect. In some applications, battery electric trucks are estimated to be cheaper today, without including the significant purchase incentives currently offered by the state.

From left to right: UPS electric delivery truck, BYD Class 6 electric box truck, Toyota Class 8 hydrogen fuel cell semi truck.

The sales standards will be coupled with purchase standards

CARB has indicated an intent to develop purchase standards for fleets that would complement the sales standards for manufacturers. The purchase standards would also take effect in 2024.

The details of these standards – likely different for various end-uses of trucks – have yet to be determined, but would set targets for fleets to begin incorporating electric truck models into their operations. To help inform their development of truck purchase standards, CARB plans to collect data (through regulatory action) from fleets operating in the state.

Purchase standards aren’t without precedent. Last December, California set a landmark purchase standard that will ensure every transit bus sold in the state will be a zero-emission vehicle by 2029. This was the first policy in the United States shifting an entire class of vehicles to 100 percent electrification.

In all, sales and purchase standards are the next step in getting clean trucks on the road. Such standards will build on successful purchase incentive programs already in place as well as charging infrastructure investments approved and underway by California electric utilities. This suite of policies mirrors strategies that have made California a leader in electric cars.

What’s next

CARB staff will continue hosting workshops on the proposed sales standard and fleet reporting requirements over the next several months. The CARB Board will have its first formal, but non-voting, hearing of the sales standard and reporting requirements in December. A final version of both will be voted on sometime in 2020.

As the process for developing the sales standard progresses, UCS will be evaluating technology availability and advocating for standards that put the electric truck market on a trajectory that is feasible, ambitious, and necessary to address the public health, climate, and equity problems resulting from truck exhaust.

 

1 “Trucks” refers to vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating of at least 8,501 lbs, i.e., a large pickup truck and up. Trucks falling into the lightest category include the Chevy Silverado 2500 pickup truck, Ford F-250 pickup truck, cargo van, or a small U-Haul truck. CARB refers to the light end of trucks as “light-heavy-duty vehicle 1” (LHDV1).

2 CARB’s most recent sales numbers indicate 74,149 of Class 2b-3 trucks (of which 44,354 are pickup trucks), 27,182 of Class 4-8 vocational trucks, and 4,837 of Class 7-8 tractor (semi) trucks.

Public Domain Photos: Jimmy O'Dea

Make Electric Vehicle Rebates Available at the Point of Purchase

New legislation proposed in Massachusetts would take a critical step towards making electric vehicles (EVs) affordable to consumers, by offering rebates to consumers at the point of sale.

While Massachusetts offers rebates for electric vehicles through its “MOR-EV” program, Massachusetts currently does not offer rebates at the point of purchase. Instead, customers who purchase an electric vehicle must fill out this application, identifying the VIN number, the purchase details, the dealership and the sales person. If there is still funding available when you make your purchase (and the program is constantly on the verge of running out of funding) the state sends the applicant a rebate check up to 120 days later.

Further, beginning in 2019, MOR-EV rebate levels were cut to just $1,500 for battery electric vehicles and $0 for plug in hybrids. Massachusetts has been forced to cut rebate amounts because the state has not developed a sustainable funding source for MOR-EV. Even with the cutbacks, the program is set to run out of funding in June. Given the central role of EVs in achieving the state’s climate limits, this is a critical issue that must be dealt with by the legislature immediately.

A budget amendment proposed by Representative Jonathan Hecht would address these problems by creating a new instant rebate of for low- and moderate-income consumers. In addition, the Hecht amendment would restore MOR-EV rebate amounts to the level they were in 2018 ($2,500 for battery electric vehicles and $1,000 for plug in hybrids). Taken together, Rep. Hecht’s legislation would make EVs a viable choice for most new vehicle purchasers.

For example, under the Hecht proposal, a middle-class customer interested in a Chevy Bolt with Quirk Chevrolet through Green Energy Consumers Alliance’s Drive Green Program might be able to lease the vehicle for no money down, and an equivalent lease rate of $150 per month on a 36 month lease. That is a great deal for a great car that will improve our environment, our public health and our economy.

We need to make EVs affordable for more drivers

MOR-EV is an important program. Its goal of encouraging the electric vehicle market, so that economies of scale would improve quality and reduce price, remains well founded. Yes, many of the direct beneficiaries are early adopters, tech enthusiasts and people with high incomes. But those initial investments have driven down costs and made these vehicles more accessible.

Today, the challenge facing EVs is how to bring the technology to all drivers. Analysis conducted by the state agencies demonstrate that widespread electrification is necessary to hit the requirements of Massachusetts’s important climate law, the Global Warming Solutions Act. Passenger vehicles are responsible for over 20 percent of global warming emissions in the state. The Comprehensive Energy Plan requested by Governor Charlie Baker and conducted by the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs looked at several potential scenarios to meet the state’s climate limits for 2030. They found that in even the least aggressive scenario, electric vehicles will have to be 2 of 3 passenger vehicles sold in Massachusetts by 2030. In the most aggressive scenario electric vehicles are 7 of 8 new vehicles sold!

A program that requires consumers to wait months before they receive their rebate is inadequate.

Many states offer EV rebates at the point of purchase

In contrast, most states that offer rebates for electric vehicles do so at the point of purchase. Most also offer larger total rebate amounts. The Delaware Clean Vehicle Rebate program offers rebates of $3,500 for consumers who purchase through participating dealerships at the point of purchase. Auto dealers who participate in Connecticut’s CHEAPR program or New York’s Drive Clean Rebate, both of which offer $2,000 for a battery electric vehicle, likewise do all the paperwork behind the scenes, giving Connecticut and New York consumers an immediate incentive without any paperwork. Colorado’s alternative fuel tax credit of up to $5,000 for a battery electric vehicle can be claimed by financing institutions at the point of purchase. New Jersey exempts EVs from the state’s sales tax, which effectively provides thousands in savings at the point of purchase.

California does not offer rebates at the point of purchase, although the state is working on pilot projects to preapprove income-eligible EV purchasers. However, California does offer much larger incentives for low- and moderate-income residents. California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program offers a rebate of up to $4,500 for the purchase or lease of a battery electric vehicle to low-income consumers statewide. People who live in the San Joaquin Valley or within the South Coast Air Quality Management District are further eligible for incentives to trade in an older, high-emissions car or truck for an electric vehicle or hybrid; taken together, these incentives “stack” to up to $14,000 for low income consumers. California is also exploring providing financing assistance to low income consumers.

Data from the Center for Sustainable Energy confirms that states such as New York and Connecticut that have introduced rebates at the point of sale do significantly better in stimulating the market for low- and moderate-income customers than Massachusetts.

Mass Save for vehicles

Making electric vehicle rebates available at the point of sale is one particularly obvious step towards bringing this technology to all consumers. But we need to figure out a larger and more comprehensive approach to vehicle electrification. The decision to purchase an electric vehicle can be complicated. It requires the consumer to consider a number of issues from long-term cost savings to charging infrastructure to access to offstreet parking. We need a program that will address multiple obstacles to vehicle electrification and help the consumer through the process of understanding this technology and making a purchase.

We have a great model for how to do that in the Bay State. It’s called the Mass Save program.

Thanks to Mass Save, all Massachusetts residents can enjoy a free Home Energy Assessment. As part of that assessment, a person comes to your house, explains what your options are, explains what incentives and programs are available to support you. Mass Save also combines direct, upfront rebates with financing assistance, offering zero-interest loans for technologies such as heat pumps, insulated windows, and solar water heaters. Several programs provide greater incentives to low-income residents – or   provide efficiency technologies for free to low-income residents. Mass Save is a big part of the reason why Massachusetts has been consistently rated the most energy efficient state in the country, saving consumers hundreds of millions per year on their energy bills.

Mass Save is an awesome program because Massachusetts has devoted real resources to Mass Save from multiple dedicated funding streams. Massachusetts’ Three Year Energy Efficiency Plan calls for $772 million in energy efficiency funding through Mass Save in 2019. Currently MOR-EV has a 2019 budget of $8 million, which is projected to last the state through June. Nobody knows how the state will fund EV incentives in July. It is very difficult to build a bold or comprehensive program that addresses multiple barriers to EV adoption when MOR-EV is constantly on the verge of running out of money.

We need to do better than this, and we can. Representative Hecht’s budget amendment would represent a good step towards making MOR-EV a program that works for all consumers. We encourage the legislature to work with the Baker administration to make point-of-sale rebates for low- and moderate-income customers a priority, and to provide the kind of sustainable funding source that can allow our EV programs to reach a lot more consumers.

Grendelkhan/Wikimedia Commons

Electric Utilities Can Accelerate Electric Truck and Bus Deployment

Photo: Greensboro Transit Authority

Today, in my inaugural blog post, I am excited to share a set of recommendations for electric utility investments in electric truck and bus charging programs.

Swapping diesel trucks and buses for electric models is a critical strategy for both reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change and reducing local air pollution to improve public health. The good news is that high-performance electric trucks and buses are becoming increasingly available for many vehicle uses, notably medium-duty delivery vehicles, cargo equipment, transit buses, and school buses. The challenge is that widespread deployment of those vehicles requires a large-scale, coordinated effort by policymakers, private investors, and—you guessed it—electric utilities.

For their part, electric utilities are an important early investor in charging programs for all EVs, including trucks and buses for several reasons. First, grid-related investments to support electricity demand from EVs are well within utilities’ wheelhouse. Second, utilities’ expertise in managing the grid make them an important partner in managing electric truck and bus loads to maximize potential benefits to the grid. For example, smart charging of EVs can make renewable energy easier to incorporate into the grid.  Finally, utilities have access to debt and capital to make investments that kick-start the comparative market for private investments.

Utilities across the country are starting to take a serious look at EV programs to support the growing demand for electric cars, trucks, and buses.  Many utilities are moving forward with vehicle electrification proposals to state utility regulators, some of which include consideration for heavy-duty vehicles. Proactive state regulators and electric utilities can take advantage of the growing availability of models to accelerate electric truck and bus deployment to help realize the health, climate, and grid benefits from medium and heavy-duty vehicles.

UCS has laid out the principles for how electric utilities should invest in EV charging. The recommendations we release today, Utility Investment in Truck and Bus Charging: A Guide for Utilities, build on those principles by providing high-level guidance on the design of utility programs for truck and bus charging.

How should utilities go about designing programs, and what should state regulators look for when evaluating programs?

Consider various strategies to address barriers to truck and bus charging. 

Different electric truck and bus uses may require different program strategies, depending on vehicle model availability and the business case for electrification in a specific service territory. For charging infrastructure, this means utilities may need to make use of a variety of ownership models in order to effectively accelerate EV deployment. These ownership models extend beyond “business as usual” up to “end-to-end” utility ownership from the customer meter to the charger (see figure).

 

Diagram showing models of utility investment in EV charging infrastructure

Models of Utility Investment in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

Set fair commercial rates that account for truck and bus charging and provide incentives for grid services.

Operating costs are one of the most important factors vehicle operators, particularly those who operate fleets, consider when deciding whether to switch to electric models.  Fair, sensible rates for commercial EV charging will ensure that vehicle operators have an opportunity to save on fuel costs and provide an incentive for charging at beneficial times for the electric grid.

Scale up programs based on their potential impact and the readiness of vehicles for electrification.

Vehicle applications such as transit buses, medium-duty delivery trucks, and cargo equipment have the potential to positively impact climate emissions and public health and are highly ready for electrification. As such, those vehicles are ready for large-scale utility programs. Utilities can also advance more nascent vehicle applications through pilot projects.

Prioritize serving communities overburdened by air pollution.

Diesel pollution and the consequential human health impacts are not distributed uniformly. Utility programs can have maximum impact for each charger deployed by focusing on areas that suffer disproportionately large amounts of diesel pollution. However, prioritizing overburdened communities is not just a best practice for cost-effectiveness. Because low-income communities and communities of color are overrepresented in overburdened areas, prioritizing charger and EV deployment in these areas is an important way to reduce public health inequities.

Coordinate and leverage multiple funding sources.

While utilities are well-suited to be an early investor in the EV charging space, other funds for EV charging are available. As UCS has previously discussed, the VW settlement and other funds fall short of providing the scale of investment needed for widespread electrification of truck and buses. Even so, those funds are an important resource for accelerating EV adoption. Utilities can maximize the reach of their own programs by coordinating with and leveraging other funding sources.

Consider fleet programs that accelerate electrification across vehicles classes.

Utilities can identify opportunities to include trucks and buses alongside passenger vehicles in fleet programs to make the most of synergies in information sharing between the utility and fleet customers.

Consult with truck and bus fleet managers when developing programs.

Utilities’ customer relationships with fleet managers can become strategic partnerships for the development of utility charging programs.  Utilities can collaborate with fleet operators to understand the use and charging needs of electric trucks and buses in order to inform infrastructure programs and rate designs.

Set minimum charging system capabilities to enable managed charging.

Managed charging of truck and bus loads is critical to realizing the greenhouse gas benefits and fuel cost savings those vehicles can offer. A “smart” system in which chargers can communicate with a network system is necessary to enable managed charging. Requiring such capabilities for chargers supported by utility programs will enable managed charging, while also making it easier to upgrade charger software over time.

Future-proof investments by preparing charger sites for additional deployments.

It is important to take a long-term view of electric truck and bus deployment when designing programs. Utilities can future-proof “make-ready” investments—the upgraded panels, new conduit and wires to make the site ready for chargers—by considering expected future charging demand when determining the capacity of the make-ready installation.

I am encouraged to see some utilities already step up to support truck and bus electrification. We need many more to follow suit with significant investments to make timely progress on climate and public health. These recommendations will help make utility investments more effective in meeting these urgent goals.

For a fuller discussion of each recommendation, including program examples, be sure to check out the full policy brief.

Photo: Greensboro Transit Authority

Will Congress Extend the EV Tax Credit? A New Bipartisan Bill Gives me Hope

Photo: John Brighenti/Flickr

Electric vehicles (EVs) are our best choice for significantly reducing emissions from cars and light trucks.  Here at UCS, we spend a lot of time thinking about EVs, how they work, what they do for the environment, how to get more consumers to think about buying one, how to make sure the benefits of electrification are widespread and equitable, and how to best incentivize these vehicles for consumers.

Numerous polls and studies show that reducing the upfront cost of EVs is key to accelerating adoption.  The purchase price of EVs are currently higher than their conventional gasoline-powered counterparts, so the federal $7,500 tax credit for plug-in electric EVs helps make them cost competitive and is critical for deployment.  The credit is structured differently than most other tax credits– the full credit is available until an auto company hits 200,000 EV sales – after a manufacturer exceeds that number of sales, there is a year-long phase down period where buyers receive a partial tax credit.

Why does this matter?

Two U.S. manufacturers have hit the 200,000 sales mark and are currently in the phase down – Tesla and General Motors.  Nissan will likely be the next manufacturer to hit the cap.  As consumers are shopping for a new EV, they will find that they will not be able to take the tax credit for vehicles made by these manufacturers, which creates a disincentive to buy EVs from these companies.  With about 40 EV models on the market (compared to nearly 300 models for conventional vehicles), the already restricted consumer choice on EVs shrinks even more.  Further, many of these EVs are only available in select markets, so depending on where you live, you may have far fewer EV models to choose from. This also penalizes the companies that have been leading the way on electrification as they are now competing with companies that have been slower to market and whose vehicles are still eligible for the tax credit.

It’s not that this is a bad structure, but the biggest problem with the current tax credit is that 200,000 vehicles isn’t considered scale in the auto industry.  For example, in 2018 over 240,000 Jeep Cherokees, 325,000 Honda Civics, and 909,000 Ford F-series trucks were sold.  These vehicles are all being produced at scale, but not a single EV model has had sales anywhere close to these numbers over their many years on the market.

As battery costs decline and manufacturing scale increases, these vehicles will become cost-competitive with conventional vehicles – both our analysis and new analysis from ICCT show that we can expect to see price parity in the mid-2020’s.  We strongly support expanding or modifying the tax credit for a defined period before EVs are cost-competitive with conventional vehicles.  There are a number of ideas on how to do this; some change the credit to be a more conventional tax credit and allow for it to be used for a set number of years.  Others increase the number of vehicles (the “manufacturer cap”) that are eligible for the tax credit.  We are open to evaluating any of these solutions.

We are nearing a tipping point in the next decade where electrification will be mainstream — costs for batteries are coming down, and manufacturers are nearing deployment of EVs in every class of vehicle. But it will take bipartisan support and investment to make that vision a reality, if the US is to lead the world towards a more sustainable transportation future.

What’s new this week?

Last night, the first bipartisan and bicameral piece of legislation that would increase the tax credit was unveiled.  It has the support of 60 organizations, including the auto companies (all of them – this is no small feat), utilities, auto suppliers, environmental groups, health groups, business groups, and security groups.  In other words, this is legislation that has widespread support and could potentially become law.

In the Senate, Senators Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Gary Peters (D-MI), and Susan Collins (R-ME) are the primary architects of the Driving America Forward Act.  Representative Dan Kildee (D-MI-5) is the lead sponsor in the House of Representatives.  This proposal would increase the per manufacturer cap to 600,000 and reduce the tax credit value for the additional 400,000 units to $7,000 per vehicle (it’s currently a maximum $7,500 per vehicle).  The bill also extends the tax credit for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles for 10 years, which will incentivize the development and deployment of additional low carbon, zero tailpipe emissions options, which UCS also supports.

What will the bill really do?

Some relatively simple math shows the benefits of EVs. The average EV driving on electricity in the US will generate 3.3 tons FEWER CO2e (CO2 equivalent) emissions per year than an average gasoline-powered car (which right now gets about 30 mpg).  If I could wave a magic wand and replace 400,000 conventional vehicles with EVs tomorrow, the reduction would be 2 million metric tons of CO2e emissions per year, roughly the same emissions as from the electricity use of almost 350,000 homes in  a year.

These climate benefits are real and are only going to get better as the grid gets cleaner.  My colleagues have been looking at the emissions impacts of driving an EV in different parts of the country for years now and we have already seen a dramatic shift in the several years since when we first started this work.  In 2009, we found that 45 percent of people lived in areas where an EV would produce the same tailpipe global warming emissions as a conventional vehicle that gets 50 mpg.  By our more recent analysis in 2018, that number was up to 75 percent (the toggle function on the map in this blog is really fun).  In large parts of the country, EVs emit much less than even the most efficient conventional vehicle.  That’s a significant change over a relatively short time period.  Unlike gasoline, electricity is a transportation fuel that can get (and has gotten!) significantly cleaner over time – as the grid gets cleaner, the emissions from EVs charged on that grid automatically go down.

In addition to the climate benefits, this bill would also result in lower oil use – to the tune of about 480 gallons per year per car.  In my magic wand scenario above, that would be nearly 200 million gallons of gasoline that are not used.  That’s a lot of oil.  Speaking of oil – you know who isn’t going to like this bill?  The Koch brothers and the oil industry.  We have been keeping an eye on their lobbying activities around the EV tax credit – I’m sure it won’t be terribly surprising to learn that they are actively trying to abolish it.   This means that the oil companies think that EVs pose a real threat to their business.  To me, that means we’re on the right path, but we can’t afford to deviate now.  We must keep moving forward, and that means increasing EV sales and making sure that charging infrastructure is available so we can dramatically reduce emissions from transportation.

EVs may be a threat to the oil industry, but they are critical to the auto industry

US leadership in a critical industry is also riding on our ability to deploy EVs domestically.  Globally, there is really no question that we are moving towards electrification.  The International Council on Clean Transportation has written several reports on the global EV market and what other countries are doing to incentivize EV purchases – not surprisingly, China is setting itself up to eat our lunch.

In 2018, 64 percent of the EVs sold in the US were made domestically.  GM, Tesla and Nissan EVs have been rolling off assembly lines in MI, CA, and TN, for example. That’s a pretty good news story.  But if we, as a country, do not continue to invest in electrification, we are not going to be able to keep posting these numbers.  We are going to wind up importing more EVs, and maybe more importantly, the intellectual capacity on innovation and leadership in the advanced automotive industry is going to shift elsewhere.  As ICCT put it “Economies like Japan, Germany, and the United States, among others where there is major automobile manufacturing, have the most to lose if they do not lead in the transition to electric vehicles.  China, on the other hand, is now the leading automobile market and has the most to gain from staking out a leadership position in the shift to electric.”  If we don’t stay at the table, we can’t win.

It would be great for more Senators to support the bipartisan bill to extend the EV tax credit – you can ask your Senators to co-sponsor the bill by taking this action.

Photo: John Brighenti/Flickr

Washington State Tackles Transportation Emissions

Photo: Alaska Airlines

The climate crisis demands an immediate response on multiple fronts, and while in Washington DC the Trump administration is attempting to reverse the progress of the last administration, in Washington state legislators are tackling the challenge head on.

The largest source of pollution in Washington state is transportation, which is another way to say burning petroleum-based fuels like gasoline and diesel. Tackling emissions from transportation requires policies that focus on vehicles and transportation fuels. Broad economy-wide measures like carbon pricing or cap and trade are important and should be pursued but will have limited direct impact on transportation in the near term. Fortunately, a clean fuel program, which targets transportation fuel directly, has proven quite effective. Legislators in Washington are considering enacting such a standard, which would be a major step forward in cutting oil use and emissions from transportation.

Clean fuels policies cut oil use and emissions

California, Oregon and British Columbia each have a clean fuel standard in place. These are technology neutral performance standards that require average transportation fuels to get cleaner over time. They don’t mandate the use of any specific clean fuel but instead provide support for all clean fuels based on a scientific assessment of the benefits they provide compared to burning gasoline and diesel fuel.

The measure of a clean fuel adds up the global warming pollution associated with the full lifecycle of the fuel, from fuel production to combustion. This approach is flexible, and allows for the goals to be met in several ways: by blending cleaner biofuels into the gasoline and diesel used by the existing fleet of cars and trucks,  substituting fossil fuels with drop-in renewable fuels (such as renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, or renewable jet fuel), or by using more clean fuels like electricity and hydrogen. The lifecycle assessment for each fuel recognizes that producing transportation fuels can also be very polluting, so emissions from using fuels is combined with emissions from oil fields, tar sands, oil refineries, not to mention the production of crops for biofuels or power for electricity generation. See our fact sheet and analysis on clean fuel availability for more details.

Experience shows clean fuels policies work

California’s clean fuel policy, called the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, was enacted nearly a decade ago, and with a track record of success it was recently extended to reduce the carbon intensity of the state’s fuel supply by 20 percent by 2030. The policy has significantly increased use of clean alternative fuels in the state and has encouraged producers of clean fuels to reduce emissions associated with their production.

For example, the policy does not just simply encourage the use of alternative such as biodiesel and natural gas; it encourages fuel producers to use the lowest carbon sources of these alternative fuels, which means biodiesel, made from used cooking oil or biomethane captured from wastes. Clean fuels policy also provides a substantial support for electrification of vehicles. By switching from diesel to electricity, transit agencies can generate credits worth more than $10,000 per year for each bus, and clean fuel credits can be used to fund rebate programs for electric vehicles. A program under development in California is expected to provide rebates worth up to $2,000 per EV.

The cost of climate inaction is high and rising

The oil industry and other critics of clean fuel policies claim they will increase the cost of gasoline or diesel. But by focusing attention on the small cost of making smart investments to move steadily away from petroleum-based fuels, they distract from the real risks to consumers and the public. Cleaner transportation choices like electricity not only are produced in state but have lower and more stable prices than oil.  The real risk to consumers comes from the inherent instability of global oil markets and the Trump administration’s efforts, aided by the oil industry, to roll back fuel economy and emissions standards. And the cost of inaction in the face of the climate crisis is much higher still. Beware of the oil industry’s self-serving claims to be protecting the pocketbooks of drivers when they are really protecting their own monopoly on the transportation fuel marketplace at the expense of future generations.

Washington lawmakers should join their neighbors on the west coast by enacting a clean fuels program of their own.  The cost of inaction is just too high to neglect the largest source of pollution in the state, and the benefits of accelerating the transition to electricity and other clean fuels is too great to ignore.  Together with other policies to promote renewable energy and more efficient buildings, a clean fuels policy is a critical tool for Washington to address the climate crisis.

EPA Report Shows Vehicles Are Most Efficient Ever But is Trying to Roll Back That Progress

Today, EPA published the latest in a series of annual reports looking at the fuel economy and emissions of passenger cars and trucks. The news is both good and completely unsurprising: vehicles are more efficient than ever before, and manufacturers continue to comply with the strong standards driving that improvement.

Incredibly, the fact that consumers continue save bucketloads of cash ($78 billion and counting) as a result of these standards is not slowing down this administration from rolling them back. Manufacturers have plenty of technology left on the shelf…and if the administration gets its way, that’s where it’ll stay.

MPG at highest ever (again)

I’ve read countless articles about the death of sedans and the rise of crossovers, but no matter what type of vehicle it may be that customers are buying today, they’re getting choices that are (or nearly are) more efficient than ever before. Improved efficiency in each class of vehicle over the past few years has continued to push the fuel economy of all new vehicles sold to a new record high of 24.9 mpg for the 2017 model year, up 0.2 mpg from the previous year, even as cars give way to more pick-ups and SUVs.

The only major improvements in fuel economy and emissions have occurred under strong standards—CAFE standards were held flat for nearly 20 years before the first improved standards for light trucks went into effect in 2005, to be followed with standards for all passenger vehicles beginning in 2011 (CAFE) and 2012 (global warming emissions). And now EPA wants to put the freeze on that progress once again.

Manufacturers are complying with strong standards

This record level of fuel economy is no accident—driving that improvement for consumers are strong standards set in 2010 and affirmed in 2016. And, despite their statements to the contrary, we continue to see automakers complying with these emissions standards.

Manufacturers are reducing emissions in response to strong standards and have accrued a massive bank of credits (249 million metric tons!) that will help them meet even stronger standards in the future.

Automakers will be entering the 2018 model year with more than 249 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 credits, thanks to doing better than required in previous years. While they’ve had to use some of these credits again this year, the industry used less than last year (18 MMT worth vs 30 MMT). That’s because automakers improved their fleets in 2017 at a rate greater than required, which helps illustrate the year-to-year variance in model updates and the way in which banked credits are planned as apart of an overall compliance strategy.

To put that 249 MMT of banked credits in context, manufacturers could actually do absolutely nothing to improve the efficiency of their vehicles until 2020 and still continue to comply with the standards.

Plenty of technology to choose from for future improvements

In order to achieve record high levels of fuel economy, manufacturers have been deploying a wide array of different technologies, as highlighted in the latest report (see figure). The figure below shows the percent of a manufacturer’s vehicles that employ a particular type of efficiency technology–note in particular the wide variance and numerous values well short of the majority of a manufacturer’s sales.

The latest data from EPA on some of the most common efficiency technologies shows that manufacturers have only just begun to deploy some of the most obvious ways to improve the efficiency of conventional vehicles, often focusing on just one or two technologies. That leaves plenty of room for further improvement, to meet even stronger standards.

There are two clear facts that jump out from this figure: 1) most manufacturers have invested in just a handful of technologies to-date to improve their fleet, and 2) that means a lot of unfulfilled potential yet to tap. For example, while Hyundai has focused on deploying direct injection across its fleet, it has barely invested in increasing the efficiency of its transmissions or even much deployment of smaller, turbocharged engines. Increasing investment in these technologies would provide ample room for further future improvement.

While most companies have at least begun to invest in improving their fleet, one company has essentially rested on its laurels: Toyota. As we pointed out in our 2018 Automaker Rankings, Toyota stopped investing in its trucks and SUVs for a number of years, largely relying on its Prius family of hybrids to comply with efficiency requirements—and that’s borne out in the data provided by EPA. As a result, Toyota is the only major manufacturer to actually see its fuel economy get worse over the past 5 years.

The data shows we can, and should, keep moving forward

This latest EPA report shows clearly: 1) the standards are driving improvements as intended, saving consumers money and reducing emissions; and 2) there is ample technology available to continue to improve, with manufacturers well positioned to meet stronger standards primarily by continuing to invest in reducing emissions from conventional vehicles.

Unfortunately, Andrew Wheeler’s EPA would rather ignore its own ample evidence for the benefits of setting strong standards and the ability for manufacturers to meet the challenge in order to roll back this successful program for the administration’s own ideological aims. After calling off negotiations with California, with scant evidence these negotiations truly started in the first place, it’s clear that this administration is aiming to stop this successful program no matter what, essentially halting progress at 2020 levels.

Rolling back the standards will throw the whole industry in limbo, stifling investment in many of the most obvious off-the-shelf opportunities and putting the brakes on investment in the next generation of technology. The people who will pay the most for this administration’s failure to follow the data are those who can least afford it: American workers and lower- and middle-class families who spend a disproportionate share of their income at the pump.

EPA’s own analysis shows that a rollback is the wrong way to go—but there’s little to suggest that this administration is interested in anything but driving this successful program off a cliff.

EPA EPA EPA