All Things NuclearAll Things Nuclear https://allthingsnuclear.org Insights on Science and Security Thu, 08 Nov 2018 16:43:09 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://allthingsnuclear.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/cropped-favicon-32x32.png All Things Nuclear https://allthingsnuclear.org 32 32 Will Japan Try to Save the INF Treaty? https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/will-japan-try-to-save-the-inf-treaty https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/will-japan-try-to-save-the-inf-treaty#respond Thu, 08 Nov 2018 16:43:09 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=16080

US President Ronald Reagan and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone meet at Camp David in 1986.

President Trump said he plans to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. US National Security Advisor John Bolton implied the government of Japan already agreed. Read More

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US President Ronald Reagan and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone meet at Camp David in 1986.

President Trump said he plans to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. US National Security Advisor John Bolton implied the government of Japan already agreed.

Not long after Bolton’s statement, Foreign Minister Taro Kono told reporters the Abe government needed to discuss the fate of the treaty with US officials before commenting. Six days later US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Tom DiNanno and Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asia Marc Knapper arrived in Tokyo for a three-day dialog on US extended deterrence guarantees for Japan. The fate of the INF treaty was on their agenda. What did Japanese officials tell the Trump administration?

Japanese advocates for nuclear arms control and disarmament should be concerned about the consequences of INF withdrawal. So should anyone worried about the risk of nuclear and conventional missile strikes against Japan.

If the United States abrogates the INF treaty it may deploy ground-based intermediate range missiles in Japan. Russia and China may take measures to counter those deployments. This would weaken Japanese security, and Japanese citizens could find themselves at the center of a new arms race in East Asia.

Concerned US and Japanese citizens deserve to know if the Japanese foreign ministry is doing anything to save the INF Treaty before Trump makes an official announcement.

Little Cause for Hope

The Abe government has been notably pro-nuclear. Japanese foreign ministry officials applauded the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which called for re-deploying low-yield nuclear weapons in Asia. They successfully lobbied the Obama administration to make US nuclear weapons available in Asia aboard dual-capable aircraft.

Moreover, Takeo Akiba, the current Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, told a US congressional commission on the US nuclear posture that “some quarters” in Japan want to revise the three non-nuclear principles to allow for the transit and storage of US nuclear weapons in Japan. In response to a direct question from former US Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger, Akiba replied that he thought building a nuclear weapons storage site in Okinawa “sounds persuasive.”

These statements and the Foreign Ministry’s long record of attempts to obscure discussion on the transit of US nuclear weapons through Japanese territory provide little reason to hope Mr. Akiba or Mr. Kono will oppose Trump’s decision to withdraw from the INF Treaty.

Moreover, they will most likely insist that their dialog with US officials on the subject remain confidential, making it difficult to learn what they told US officials during the extended deterrence dialog. That’s unfortunate. Greater transparency could promote a more informed public debate on the treaty. Prime Minister Abe’s passive role in the fate of the INF Treaty stands in sharp contrast to the active efforts of former Prime Minister Yusuhiro Nakasone to influence the decisions of President Ronald Reagan throughout the negotiations that led to the treaty.

Nakasone’s Concern

The push for the INF treaty emerged in the late 1970s in response to Soviet deployment of the SS-20, a new road-mobile missile with a range of 5,000 kilometers that could carry three nuclear warheads. US and NATO negotiators were exclusively focused on the threat to Western Europe. Nakasone personally intervened to remind Reagan that the new Soviet SS-20 deployments were also a threat to Japan. If the United States abrogates the INF Treaty it will free Russia to deploy new nuclear-capable nuclear missiles that can strike US military bases in Japan.

US analysts and officials pushing to scrap the treaty want to deploy new conventionally armed ground-based missiles in Asia with ranges that are currently prohibited by the INF. They claim it is necessary to increase US conventional superiority over China even though Chinese military professionals already recognize US nuclear and conventional superiority. Regardless of the merits of that argument, Russia may feel the need to deploy new nuclear-armed missiles to counter the new US deployments in Japan.

The combination of the Abe government’s support for redeploying US nuclear weapons in Asia, Mr. Akiba’s willingness to allow the construction of nuclear weapons storage sites in Okinawa and the Foreign Ministry’s unwillingness to discuss its recent dialog with the United States provide ample reason for Russian military planners to wonder if the new US intermediate-range missiles deployed in Japan could be armed with nuclear warheads.

China’s Reaction

The relatively small size of China’s nuclear arsenal, especially when compared to the nuclear arsenal of the United States, suggests Chinese military planners are unlikely to significantly alter China’s nuclear weapons modernization program in response to a US abrogation of the INF Treaty. China’s primary concern is the survivability of their nuclear arsenal. Ground-based intermediate-range missiles based in Japan might be able to reach father into China’s interior than the conventional air- and sea-based options currently available, but the impact of that extended reach is unlikely to be great enough to convince Chinese strategists that a rational US president would risk Chinese nuclear retaliation by attempting to wipe out China’s nuclear forces in a pre-emptive strike.

While there may be no significant impact on Chinese thinking about nuclear weapons or its nuclear modernization program, US-controlled conventionally armed ground-based intermediate-range missiles deployed in Japan would become targets for conventional Chinese missile strikes in any major military confrontation with the United States. This could draw Japan into armed conflicts not directly connected to its defense. And Japanese consent to those deployments would undermine the strategic intent of Abe’s recent outreach to China.

US abrogation of the INF Treaty would weaken Japan’s national security, especially if Japan agrees to deploy US ground-based intermediate-range missiles on its territory.

Given the questionable benefits and probable costs, concerned US and Japanese citizens deserve to know more about the current discussions between the Foreign Ministry and the Trump administration before a final decision is made.

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China and the INF Treaty https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/china-and-the-inf-treaty https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/china-and-the-inf-treaty#comments Thu, 01 Nov 2018 18:04:43 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=16064 Some US analysts and officials argue the United States should withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty because it prevents the United States from responding to China’s deployed short- and intermediate-range ground-based missiles. They argue the United States should abandon a bilateral arms control agreement intended to prevent Russia from threatening Western Europe to make it easier for the United States to threaten China. Read More

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Some US analysts and officials argue the United States should withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty because it prevents the United States from responding to China’s deployed short- and intermediate-range ground-based missiles. They argue the United States should abandon a bilateral arms control agreement intended to prevent Russia from threatening Western Europe to make it easier for the United States to threaten China.

These are dubious arguments. The US nuclear arsenal is more than 10 times larger than China’s and Chinese military strategists already believe the United States possesses conventional military superiority.

The push for the INF treaty emerged in the late 1970s in response to Soviet deployment of the SS-20, a new road-mobile missile with a range of 5,000 kilometers that could carry three nuclear warheads to Western European targets from eastern Soviet Union bases. The missile could reach targets in many other parts of the world, including Asia, but that was not a concern. At one point during the negotiations the United States and NATO were willing to let the Soviets continue to deploy some SS-20s if they moved them far enough east to be out of range of many Western European targets. Japan’s prime minister, Yasuhiro Nakasone, was so angry that US and NATO negotiators were sacrificing his country’s security concerns that he personally pressed President Ronald Reagan to take that option off the table.

As discussions were proceeding, the United States and NATO simultaneously moved forward with plans to deploy hundreds of nuclear-armed, ground-launched cruise missiles and Pershing II ballistic missiles in Western Europe to restore a perceived balance of nuclear forces that Soviet SS-20 deployments had upset. That balance could be achieved by either limiting the number of Soviet missiles with the treaty or increasing the number of new US-NATO missiles. Public opposition to the proposed US-NATO deployments helped tip the scales in favor of negotiations.

One of the reasons Asia was not a concern to US INF negotiators is there was no comparable imbalance between US and Chinese nuclear forces. The United States possessed significantly more then and still does today. China currently has a few hundred nuclear warheads and enough weapons-grade plutonium to make several hundred more. The United States has 4,000 nuclear warheads (deployed and reserve) and enough weapons-grade plutonium to make approximately 5,000 more.

China could deliver 75 to 100 of those nuclear warheads to targets in the United States via ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and a maximum of 60 more on its soon to be 60 submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). It can deliver 50 to 100 more nuclear warheads to targets in Asia with nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles. The United States could deliver as many as 800 nuclear warheads on its 400 ICBMs and a maximum of 1,920 warheads on its 240 SLBMs. The United States also currently deploys 452 nuclear gravity bombs and 528 nuclear-armed air-launched cruise missiles. China does have several hundred nuclear-capable cruise missiles, but US intelligence agencies believe they are assigned conventional missions. Even if they were assigned nuclear missions, the balance of nuclear forces would remain heavily skewed in favor of the United States.

So, scrapping the INF threatens to upset the balance of nuclear forces with Russia in Europe in order to widen an already large US nuclear advantage over China in Asia.

Since that’s an obviously bad trade, US analysts and officials who tie the fate of this decades-old US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement to China may be more worried about balance of conventional forces. If that’s true, the question for President Trump is whether acquiring the freedom to target China with this class of conventionally armed missiles is worth giving Russia the freedom to target both Western Europe and Asia with the same class of nuclear-armed missiles.

Before he makes up his mind, Trump should know that the current conventional military balance between the United States and China does not inspire much confidence among Chinese military strategists. In China’s most recent assessment, US conventional military capabilities in Asia are consistently described as far superior to the capabilities of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The only Chinese generals who talk with some enthusiasm about a future military conflict with the United States are the political officers who appear on television and write propaganda pieces to buck up the troops and assuage the general public.

Chinese generals with actual military responsibilities are not at all optimistic about the outcome of a conventional war with the United States. They say they’ll fight if US politicians give them no other option, by supporting independence for Taiwan, for example. But the idea that China is a rising military power preparing to kick the US military out of Asia is a uniquely US perception based more on highly questionable theories of international relations than objective assessments of Chinese military capabilities or intentions.

China has been spending a consistent 2 percent of its annual gross domestic product (GDP) on its military every year since 1988. Because China’s annual GDP has grown significantly over the past several decades, Chinese military spending may be narrowing the conventional military gap to the same degree the growth of China’s economy is narrowing the economic gap. China’s per capita GDP has ballooned from a paltry $283 (in current US dollars) in 1988 to a little more than $9,000 today. That’s an impressive achievement. The per capita GDP of the United States went from $21,483 to $61,690 in the same period.

How much China’s economic growth has allowed its leaders to close the conventional military gap is very difficult to assess. One thing that should be clear, however, is that comparing totals of one class of armaments—ground-based missiles—is meaningless. There are many discrete capabilities that must be considered in assessing the conventional military balance between China and the United States, including the quantity and quality of aircraft, naval vessels, space assets, cyber skills and the education and training of troops. That last category is the one brought up most frequently in personal conversations with Chinese military professionals. Consistent with the traditional Maoist view that people, not munitions, determine the outcome of wars, the gap in the quality of the average soldier is the benchmark Chinese military strategists worry about the most, and Chinese military officers work most diligently to close.

The INF treaty is a bilateral agreement between the United States and Russia intended to do one thing and one thing only: preserve nuclear stability between the two nations that account for more than 90 percent of all the nuclear weapons in the world. US concerns about Russian violations of the treaty may be legitimate. But China does not possess any constellation of nuclear weapons that threatens to upset the balance of nuclear forces in Asia, which is very heavily weighted in favor of the United States and will continue to be for the indefinite future, despite China’s nuclear weapons modernization program.

Withdrawing from the INF treaty and forgoing the preservation of nuclear stability with Russia because of concerns about improvements in China’s conventional military capabilities is unwarranted, especially since Chinese military professionals believe they still lag far behind.

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Nuclear Reactor Fuel Safety: The Waiting Gain https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/nuclear-waiting-gain https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/nuclear-waiting-gain#comments Thu, 27 Sep 2018 13:21:08 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=16049 Nuclear power reactors spilt atoms to release energy used to generate electricity. Many of the byproducts formed when atoms split are unstable (radioactive) and release particles or gamma rays in search of stability. These radioactive emissions produce energy. Whether in the core of an operating reactor, in the core of a shutdown reactor, in the spent fuel pool after discharge from a reactor core, or in dry storage after offloading from a spent fuel pool, the energy released from nuclear reactor fuel must be removed before it damages the fuel from overheating. Read More

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Nuclear power reactors spilt atoms to release energy used to generate electricity. Many of the byproducts formed when atoms split are unstable (radioactive) and release particles or gamma rays in search of stability. These radioactive emissions produce energy. Whether in the core of an operating reactor, in the core of a shutdown reactor, in the spent fuel pool after discharge from a reactor core, or in dry storage after offloading from a spent fuel pool, the energy released from nuclear reactor fuel must be removed before it damages the fuel from overheating. This commentary describes the energy levels associated with nuclear fuel in various locations at various times to illustrate the factors that affect the associated hazard levels.

Nuclear Fuel Locations

The San Onofre nuclear plant near San Clemente, California is used to describe the nuclear reactor fuel locations and energy levels for this commentary. San Onofre has been permanently shut down, but data from when its reactors operated and for the spent fuel remaining onsite represent conditions at nuclear plants across the country.

Figure 1 is an aerial view of San Onofre Units 2 and 3 during their construction in 1980. The reactor cores resided within the reactor containment domes—robust structures made from thick reinforced concrete. Each unit had a spent fuel pool housed within its own Fuel Handling Building, an industrial-grade structure designed not to fall down when the wind blows or ground shakes.

Figure 1 (Source: Source: Nuclear Regulatory Commission)

Figure 2 is an aerial view of the dry storage locations at San Onofre. Concrete vaults stored metal canisters of spent fuel assemblies from Unit 1 in horizontal vaults. The owner opted to place metal canisters of spent fuel assemblies from Units 2 and 3 in vertical vaults within an unground concrete slab. The dry storage area is on the plant site. The Unit 2 and 3 buildings are off the picture to the right.

Figure 2 (Source: Southern California Edison presentation, November 2, 2017)

Nuclear Fuel Energy Levels

Table 1 provides information on the energy levels of nuclear reactor fuel under various conditions for San Onofre Unit 3. Its reactor core contained 217 fuel assemblies. The reactor was licensed to operate at power levels up to 3,438 Megawatts thermal (Mwt). When operating at full power, the average fuel assembly generated 15.8 Mwt. When operators flipped switches to rapidly insert control rods that interrupted the nuclear chain reaction, the reactor might be shut down but the decay of unstable fission byproducts continued to produce about six percent of the core’s output at full power. The average fuel assembly released just under 1 Mwt minutes after a reactor shut down from full power. As fission byproducts decayed, the radioactive emissions continued to release energy at steadily decreasing amounts. Fifteen days after a reactor shut down from full power, the power level of an average fuel assembly dropped to 0.41 Mwt.

The Unit 3 spent fuel pool was licensed to hold up to 1,542 fuel assemblies. After the plant was permanently shut down and all fuel assemblies were offloaded from the reactor core, the Unit 3 spent fuel pool contained 1,350 fuel assemblies. The Unit 3 spent fuel pool had two limits on decay heat from the spent fuel it held. The maximum limit of 15.035 Mwt assumed the entire reactor core was offloaded into the spent fuel pool as quickly as allowed by the license in addition to the decay heat from the rest of the spent fuel in the pool. The normal limit of 7.239 Mwt applied to times when only a portion of the reactor core was discharged to the spent fuel pool during refueling and replaced with new fuel assemblies.

The owner calculated the actual decay heat load in the Unit 3 spent fuel pool at various times since permanent shut down of the plant. The actual decay heat load was 0.953 Mwt at the end of 2013 and has steadily declined since then.

The owner is transferring fuel assemblies from the Unit 3 spent fuel pool into the underground dry storage vaults using Multi-Purpose Canisters holding up to 37 assemblies (MPC-37). Each MPC-37 canister is certified for storing up to 37 spent fuel assemblies with a maximum total decay heat load of 0.037 Mwt. The canisters being loaded at San Onofre have actual decay heat loads of about 0.028 Mwt.

The fifth column of Table 1 compares the relative power levels of fuel in various locations to the power level in an MPC-37 loaded to the maximum limit. The power level of the reactor core at full power is nearly 93,000 times higher than that in the MPC-37.

The sixth column of Table 1 shows the power level of the average fuel assembly in the spent fuel pool to roughly equal the power level of a fuel assembly in the MPC-37. While the fifth column shows that the individual fuel assembly power levels are about the same, the larger inventory of fuel assemblies in the spent fuel pool yields a higher overall power (energy) level.

Table 1. (Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

Nuclear Fuel Amounts

The third column of Table 1 provides the inventories of fuel assemblies in the reactor core and spent fuel pool in terms of number of equivalent MPC-37 canisters. It would take about six MPC-37 canisters to hold the fuel assemblies from one reactor core. It would take more than 36 MPC-37 canisters to store the fuel assemblies from the Unit 3 spent fuel pool before the current loading campaign began. Thus, the spent fuel pool contained about six reactor cores’ worth of fuel assemblies while the reactor core contained about six MPC-37’s worth of fuel assemblies.

Nuclear Fuel Populations

Table 2 provides the information on energy levels of nuclear reactor fuel for San Onofre Unit 2. The results are identical to Unit 3’s information for the reactor core and MPC-37 cases, and very similar for the spent fuel pool case.

Table 2 contains information on a few additional conditions for Unit 2 than presented for Unit 3. I estimated the inventory and heat load in the Unit 2 spent fuel pool after 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 MPC-37s had been loaded. This analysis shows that while the average fuel assembly energy level (column 6) remains the same, the overall energy level (column 4) in the spent fuel pools decreases as fuel assemblies are transferred into dry storage.

Table 2 (Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

To help put the fuel assembly relative power data in context, three additional columns are provided in Table 2. These columns linked the populations of three nearby cities to the power levels relative to the MPC-37 maximum power level (i.e., the column 5 data). As the power levels decreased when the reactor was shut down, fuel offloaded to the spent fuel pool, and fuel transferred into dry storage, the population levels were reduced by the same percentage.

All but one person (I think it’s Amy although it might be Earl) must depart San Clemente to match the reduction in power level from full power to MPC-37 storage.

 UCS Perspective

Tables 1 and 2 illustrate the relative hazards of nuclear fuel in reactor cores, spent fuel pools, and dry storage. Nuclear fuel in the reactor core, even in the core of a shutdown reactor, has a significantly higher energy level than when in the spent fuel pool or dry storage. The higher energy level has two associated hazard implications. First, it translates into less time to successfully intervene to prevent fuel damage when cooling is lost or impaired. Second, it provides a larger catalyst or engine to expel radioactive materials from damaged fuel. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of an accident times its consequences. The first factor affects the probability of an accident while the second factor affects its consequences. Combined, these factors can cause risk to increase.

Nuclear fuel in spent fuel pools has lower energy levels than when in reactor cores. The average fuel assembly energy levels are lower than the maximum energy level permitted in a MPC-37 canister. But the associated inventories indicate why spent fuel pools have higher risks than dry storage. The collective higher energy levels in spent fuel pools once again translate into less time to respond should cooling be lost or impaired. And the larger inventory of fuel assemblies emits a larger radioactive cloud should intervention fail.

Nuclear fuel in dry storage represents the least amount of fuel at the lowest energy level. If cooling is lost or impaired, more time is available to successfully intervene and less nasty spread gets out when efforts fail. But fuel in dry storage is far from absolutely safe. If it were even close to being so safe, the US would not be spending billions of dollars looking for, but not yet finding, a geological repository that can isolate this hazardous material from people and the environment for at least 10,000 years into the future.

Dry storage is the safest and securest way to manage nuclear fuel risks today. However, the more of the 10,000-year period we waste looking for a geological repository, the less competent and responsible we reveal ourselves to be.

We can do better. And not just because it would be hard for us to mess this mess up any worse than we’ve mismanaged so far.

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No, Space-Based Missile Defense Will Not Cost Only $20 Billion. (Spoiler: That’s only the launch costs.) https://allthingsnuclear.org/lgrego/space-based-missile-defense-will-not-cost-only-20-billion https://allthingsnuclear.org/lgrego/space-based-missile-defense-will-not-cost-only-20-billion#comments Mon, 24 Sep 2018 15:17:19 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=16044 Space-based missile defense is a terrible idea. It is expensive and straightforwardly defeated, and it is dangerous and destabilizing. (If you haven’t watched it, please do take a look at this video and web feature UCS just produced. It helps to see these arguments visually.)

But knowledgeable people say it’s not so expensive! Read More

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Space-based missile defense is a terrible idea. It is expensive and straightforwardly defeated, and it is dangerous and destabilizing. (If you haven’t watched it, please do take a look at this video and web feature UCS just produced. It helps to see these arguments visually.)

But knowledgeable people say it’s not so expensive!

At a recent event hosted by the Missile Defense Advocacy, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Mike Griffin calculated the cost to “put up” an interceptor layer. Given how Griffin talked about it, you may be forgiven for thinking he means this is the full cost of a space-based missile defense system—rather than just the cost of launching the interceptors into space. Here’s what Griffin said:

I’ll close by noting that I am very, very, very, very tired of people who say that we cannot afford it. Let me offer just a trial balloon kind of a number. I get tired of hearing how it would cost, you know, 100 or more billion dollars to put up a space-based interceptor layer. If I use as a reasonable, an entirely reasonable number based on experience of $20,000 per kilogram delivered FOB low orbit, and if I were to say that I would be content with a layer of 1,000 interceptors, which seems to me like a lot, and each of them weighs a metric ton—1,000 kilograms—which would seem to me like a lot, then the entire cost of that would be $20 billion.

Read the fine print

You will notice that what Griffin is estimating is only the launch costs for a set of 1,000 interceptors weighing a ton each. I don’t disagree with his arithmetic. But he is not estimating the full cost of developing and building a space-based missile defense system—he is in fact leaving out the majority of the costs of the system.

Griffin does not include in his estimate:

  • the cost of building the interceptors themselves
  • the cost of research and development for the interceptors
  • the cost of building supporting sensors and ground stations for operating 1,000 satellites
  • the operating costs for the system
  • sustainment costs: expected lifetimes for interceptors are 5 to 8 years, so you’d need to send up 125-200 new interceptors per year, on average, to keep a 1,000 satellite constellation healthy.

This also sets aside the fact that the total mass of interceptors needed on orbit is quite sensitive to assumptions such as how many missiles the system is expected to counter, whether those missiles are solid- or liquid-fueled, and the amount of decision time required—conditions that are explored in studies such as those coordinated by the American Physical Society in 2003 and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering & Medicine in 2012.

The National Academies study concluded that the life cycle costs for even an “austere and limited-capability” set of 650 satellites would be at least $300 billion in 2010 dollars, or 10 times more expensive than other missile defense options they examined. This estimate included the costs that Griffin did not, which are clearly substantial.

(NB: We recently wrote about why a different misunderstanding in circulation is wrong: the suggestion that a small constellation would protect against long-range missiles.)

Ok, so it probably is expensive. Are we worried about destabilizing and dangerous?

Putting interceptors in space will almost certainly provoke a reaction from potential adversaries, be it development of similar weapons, attacks on these interceptors, or an adjustment in their nuclear posture to compensate. None of these actions would improve US or global security.

At the MDAA event Griffin was asked “what do we say to China and Russia?” to allay concerns and avoid conflicts over such a system. Dr. Griffin is not particularly worried about it. He responded:

…somewhere well down on my priority list is caring about what other people think. And we just cannot afford to do that, and by creating a world—by creating a geopolitical policy environment where those kinds of considerations are surfaced, by even allowing ourselves to be drawn into that discussion we do ourselves and our allies and partners a disfavor.

However, also on the panel was Undersecretary for Policy John Rood. Rood noted that Griffin’s job is developing technology and quickly indicated that his own job was looking at just such policy issues, saying:

We do spend a lot of time concerning ourselves with those questions.

And when pressed on the issue that space-based interceptors would present an offensive capability, Undersecretary Rood said that:

…those are bridges yet to be crossed some time away given the level of sort of examination we’ve given the question thus far.

What is the key argument?

Our skepticism about space-based boost-phase missile defense gets mischaracterized, so to be clear: The problem is not that a showstopper technical issue makes hit-to-kill from space unachievable.

But even if the hit-to-kill interceptors worked perfectly, the system would not provide reliable defense since it could be straightforwardly defeated or overwhelmed. At the same time, the system would be very expensive, and a waste of resources that could be much better used elsewhere. And it would be destabilizing and dangerous. (Click here for more details.)

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Fatal Accident at Arkansas Nuclear One https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/fatal-accident-at-arkansas-one https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/fatal-accident-at-arkansas-one#respond Thu, 13 Sep 2018 10:00:37 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=16028  Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety #11

The Fatal Accident

As described in Fission Stories #139 and illustrated in Fission Stories #181, a temporary crane removing a component weighing 525 tons on March 31, 2013, in the turbine building of the Unit 1 reactor at Arkansas Nuclear One near Russellville, AR collapsed. Read More

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 Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety #11

The Fatal Accident

As described in Fission Stories #139 and illustrated in Fission Stories #181, a temporary crane removing a component weighing 525 tons on March 31, 2013, in the turbine building of the Unit 1 reactor at Arkansas Nuclear One near Russellville, AR collapsed. The dropped load struck the turbine building floor with considerable force, then rolled and fell through an opening to cause further damage on a lower floor. One worker was killed and eight others injured by the accident.

Hundreds of pictures of the dropped load and the damage it inflicted have been released. Figure 1 shows the structural steel beams and concrete floor damaged when the load struck the turbine deck. Towards the camera from the bent beam is the opening that the load then plunged through.

Figure 2 shows the dropped load (the cylindrical red object) resting on the hauler it damaged. Section of the collapsed crane and portions of the damaged building lie on the hauler and load.

Fig. 2 (<Role of Regulation 11 Figure 2.jpg> Source: Nuclear Regulatory Commission)

The Unit 1 reactor had been shut down a week earlier for refueling. The vibrations from the heavy load impacting the turbine deck and the damage from the load crashing 30 feet onto the floor below disconnected Unit 1 from the offsite power grid and caused loss of cooling for the irradiated fuel in the reactor core and spent fuel pool. The emergency diesel generators automatically started to restore power to emergency equipment. The station blackout diesel generator was disabled because its connecting cables to both units were severed. Workers ran temporary cables to restore power to non-emergency equipment from the offsite power grid and portable diesel generators. The emergency diesel generators ran for six days until normal supplies from the offsite power grid were recovered.

The Unit 2 reactor was operating at full power at the time. The vibrations caused the electrical breaker for power supply to reactor coolant pump B to open. The loss of reactor coolant pump B triggered an automatic shutdown of Unit 2. The dropped load had ruptured an 8-inch diameter fire suppression system header. Water pouring from the broken ends of the pipe flooded areas of the turbine building with tens of thousands of gallons. It took workers about 45 minutes to turn off pumps and close valves to stop the flow of water from the broken pipe. The internal flooding caused a short circuit and explosion inside an electrical cabinet about 93 minutes after the drop that disabled one of the two offsite power connections for Unit 2. The consequences from the partial loss of power included a water hammer in the feedwater heaters and the operators using natural circulation to cool down the reactor for the first time in the reactor’s 30-plus year lifetime.

The Initial Regulatory Response

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) dispatched an Augmented Inspection Team (AIT) to investigate the fatal accident. The AIT’s report, issued on June 7, 2013, identified ten issues requiring additional consideration. For a year after the fatal accident, both reactors at Arkansas Nuclear One remained in Column 1 of the NRC’s Action Matrix reflecting performance meeting or exceeding safety standards as the NRC pondered what to do with what it knew.

The Belated Regulatory Response

One week shy of the accident’s anniversary, the NRC proposed issuing one Red finding for the Unit 1 problems and one Yellow finding for the Unit 2 problems.

The proposed Unit 1 Red finding resulted primarily from the chances that the two emergency diesel generators failed. The accident disconnected the unit from its normal offsite power sources for six days. The accident disabled the station blackout diesel generator. The unavailability of offsite power disabled the instrument air system. Without instrument air, the two emergency diesel generators had air tanks with sufficient capacity for about ten start attempts. Had the emergency diesel generators not successfully started before this air reserve was exhausted, the unit would have entered a station blackout condition. At the time, the decay heat from the reactor core would have heated the reactor vessel water to boiling in 11 hours and the water boiled away would have uncovered the reactor core in 96 hours.

Based on standard human reliability analysis (HRA) values for workers diagnosing problems and likelihood of successfully implementing contingency measures within the necessary time frames, the NRC calculated the conditional core damage probability for Unit 1 to be 3.8×10-4 per year, or one meltdown every 2,632 years. That seems like a remote risk, but the chances of a tsunami inundating the site and causing a meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi—which had been estimated to be about one such event in 3,500 years—before March 11, 2011, beat those odds.

A similar risk analysis was performed for Unit 2. The proposed Unit 2 Yellow finding resulted primarily from the calculated risk that the reactor lost the normal feedwater, auxiliary feedwater, and emergency feedwater systems and that workers could not establish once-through cooling of the core. The NRC estimated the chances of these outcomes occurring concurrently to be 2.8×10-5 per year, or one such meltdown every 35,714 years.

The Owner Rejects the Regulatory Proposals

On May 1, 2014, the owner met with the NRC to dispute the agency’s ciphering and associated color selections. The owner described four independent means for workers to have cooled the Unit 1 reactor core and averted meltdown. While none of these means was absolutely guaranteed, the owner calculated the chance that all four failed to prevent meltdown to be 4.8×10-6 per year, or one meltdown every 208,333 years. If so, this risk corresponds to a White rather than Red finding as proposed.

The owner also disputed the NRC’s ciphering of the Unit 2 risk. The owner’s math put the risk of meltdown at 1.8×10-6 per year, or one meltdown every 555,556 years. If so, this risk corresponds to a White rather than Yellow finding as proposed.

The Modified Belated Regulatory Response

Two weeks after the AIT report’s anniversary, the NRC issued its final answer on the AIT’s findings, issuing Yellow findings for the Unit 1 and 2 problems. And only then did the NRC move both reactors into Column 3 of the Action Matrix.

The NRC revised its initial assessment of the risk of meltdown of the Unit 1 reactor. The owner contended that it would take 115 hours, not the 96 hours assumed by the NRC, for an uncooled reactor to boil away enough water to become uncovered and damaged. Applying the longer core uncovery time reduced the meltdown risk from 3.8×10-4 per year to 2.6×10-4 per year, or one meltdown every 3,846 years. The NRC issued the Yellow finding based on its revised risk assessment.

The NRC stood behind its initial assessment of the risk of meltdown of the Unit 2 reactor. The owner sought credit for manual actions taken by workers to restore components to service. The NRC felt that the owner was very optimistic about workers being able to complete the many steps in time due to increased stress levels of workers tackling darkness, debris, and flood waters resulting from the accident. The NRC retained the Yellow finding based on not revising its risk assessment.

The Rest of the Regulatory Response, Delayed Additionally

Nearly two years after the accident, the NRC issued another Yellow finding for inadequate floor protection measures that became evident during the accident. The collection of Yellow findings let the NRC moved the plant into Column 4. The NRC did not return Arkansas Nuclear One to Column 1 until the summer of 2018.

UCS Perspective

Had this been a regulatory race involving the NRC, a sloth, a snail, and a tortoise, the NRC would have finished a distant fourth. The NRC’s Reactor Oversight Process provides performance ratings that dictate appropriate levels of oversight every quarter. A home pregnancy test that provides an indication one year later is no less useless than an NRC Augmented Inspection Team’s investigation of a fatal accident yielding decisions a year or two later. “Justice delayed is justice denied” was coined for lengthy moments like this one.

But the injustice stemming from the NRC’s foot-dragging deliberations is overshadowed by the injustice of its long overdue verdict. The verdict was two Yellow findings for in-plant power impairments caused by the dropped load and associated flooding. That verdict depended on the NRC’s assessment of the chances that workers could deploy contingency measures to offset the equipment disabled by the event in time to prevent overheating of the reactor core.

That verdict is contrary to most verdicts reached by the NRC when assessing similar situations. Here’s but a very tiny sampling of the typical verdicts issued by the NRC for power impairments:

Assuming that the overwhelming majority of its verdicts have been correct (or at least, less wrong), then the atypical harshness of the Yellow findings at Arkansas Nuclear One reflects over-regulation by the NRC.

Blame the Game, Not Its Players

Jeff Mitman from NRC headquarters and David Loveless from NRC’s Region IV performed the risk assessments for the Arkansas Nuclear One accident. I have known both men for several years and found them to be among the many dedicated, talented staff at the NRC. I cannot contend that Mitman and Loveless erred when assessing the Unit 1 and 2 risks as high as they did.

Instead, the risk assessment tools they were forced to use are little more than nuclear Ouija boards lacking precision and repeatability. Plant workers using the same risk assessment tools derived “answers” that differed by about a factor of 100.

Imagine using a scale that provided your weight plus or minus a factor of 100. If you weighed 150 pounds, that scale could tell you one day that you weighed 1 ½ pounds and the next day that you weighed 15,000 pounds.

Imagine driving a car with a speedometer reporting your speed plus or minus a factor of 100. Traveling along at 55 mph, it might show you nearly stopped or zipping along at 5,500 mph.

Imagine using an ATM that told you your checking account balance plus or minus a factor of 100. If you had $1,000 in the account, you’d relish the days it revealed you had $100,000 to spend and be glum when it said you only had $10.

Imagine using a risk analysis tool that gave you risk results plus or minus a factor of 100. You can sense what it must be like to be Mitman or Loveless seeking to put some situation in rational context.

Stores do not sell imprecise scales, speedometers, and ATMs because no one in their right minds and few with the wrong minds would buy them.

So why is the NRC forcing its dedicated, talented staff to use imprecise risk assessment tools to make “risk-informed” regulatory decisions?

Why indeed.

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UCS’s Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety series of blog posts is intended to help readers understand when regulation played too little a role, too much of an undue role, and just the right role in nuclear plant safety.

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Clinton Power Station: Even More Power Problems https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/clinton-power-problems https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/clinton-power-problems#respond Mon, 10 Sep 2018 10:00:47 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=16021 The Clinton Power Station is located 23 miles southeast of Bloomington, Illinois and has one General Electric boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment that began operating in 1987.

In December 2017, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) dispatched a Special Inspection Team to the plant to investigate a transformer failure that prompted the operators to manually scram the reactor. Read More

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The Clinton Power Station is located 23 miles southeast of Bloomington, Illinois and has one General Electric boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment that began operating in 1987.

In December 2017, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) dispatched a Special Inspection Team to the plant to investigate a transformer failure that prompted the operators to manually scram the reactor. That event nearly duplicated a transformer failure/manual scram event that happened at Clinton in December 2013.

The ink had scarcely dried on the NRC’s special inspection report when Clinton experienced yet another electrical power problem. Some progress has been made—this time it did not involve a transformer failure causing the reactor to be shut down. This time, the reactor was already shut down when the power problem began. This time, the failures involved several workers over several days failing to follow several procedures to disable an emergency power supply. This time as in the past, the NRC dispatched a special inspection team to figure out what when wrong.

Entering a Refueling Outage

The operators shut down Clinton on April 30, 2018, to enter an outage during which the reactor would be refueled. When the reactor is running, nearly the entire array of emergency equipment must be operable except for brief periods of time. During refueling, the list of emergency equipment required to remain operable is shortened, providing opportunities for components to be tested, inspected, and repaired as necessary.

The operators tripped the main generator on April 30 as part of the reactor shut down process. When the generator was online, the electricity it produced went through the main transformers to the 345-kilovolt switchyard where transmission lines provided it to the offsite power grid. The generator’s output also flowed through the Unit Auxiliary Transformers to supply in-plant electrical needs. As shown in Figure 1, this supply to in-plant loads was unavailable with the main generator offline.

Fig. 1 (Source: NRC, color annotations by UCS)

On May 5, workers de-energized the Emergency Reserve Auxiliary Transformer (ERAT) shown on the left side of Figure 1 to support planned maintenance. Power for in-plant loads came from the 345-kilovolt switchyard through the Reserve Auxiliary Transformer (RAT).

At 9:36 pm on May 9, workers closed an electrical breaker to restore power from the RAT to 4.16-kilovolt Bus 1B1. Bus 1B1 had been removed from service for maintenance on it and the equipment powered from it. Emergency diesel generator 1B (EDG 1B) provided the backup power to Bus 1B1 in event power from the main generator and offsite grid were lost. During the planned outage of Bus 1B1, EDG 1B had been intentionally disabled to prevent it from starting. This measure protects workers from contacting energized equipment if EDG 1B started unexpectedly.

Bus 1A1 remained in service during the time Bus 1B1 was unavailable. Bus 1A1 was also supplied with offsite power from the RAT, with EDG 1A in standby to provide backup power if needed. Safety equipment powered from Bus 1A1 cooled the reactor core and could provide makeup water if necessary.

Entering an Unsafe Condition

When power to Bus 1B1 was restored, procedures called for its backup power supply—EDG 1B—to be returned to service. A worker was sent out to place EDG 1B back in service. The emergency diesel generators (EDGs) are normally maintained in standby. Should power from the offsite power grid or accident occur, the EDGs are designed to start up, reach speed, and begin supplying electrical power to their respective buses with a little more than ten seconds. To enable the large diesel engines to perform such rapid feats, the EDGs are equipped with support systems. One support system maintains the lubricating oil warmed. The start air system supplies compressed air to help the engine shaft begin spinning. Another support system supplies cooling water to protect a running diesel engine from damage caused by overhearing.

Because the cooling water system for EDG 1B was not yet returned to service, a supervisor directed the worker to keep the start air valves closed. The restoration procedure called for these valves to be opened and later checked to ensure they were open. But the supervisor was concerned that an inadvertent start of EDG 1B might damage it from overheating. EDG 1B was partially restored to service on May 9.

Late in the evening of May 10, a second supervisor directed a second worker to conduct another partial restoration of EDG 1B. The fuses for the lubricating oil system had been pulled. The worker reinserted the fuses to return the lubricating oil system for EDG 1B to service.

The second supervisor turned over duties to a third supervisor before the second worker completed the assigned partial restoration. Due to miscommunication, the third supervisor thought that all the EDG 1B restoration tasks had been completed. EDG 1B was declared back in service at 2:30 am on May 11.

EDG 1B may have been declared in service, but it was incapable of running because both its start air valves were closed. At that moment, it did not compromise safety because EDG 1A and the safety equipment it supplied were still available and that’s all that was required per regulations.

Safety was compromised at 11:28 pm on May 13 when the reactor core cooling pump supplied from Bus 1A1 was removed from service and the reactor core cooling pump supplied from Bus 1B1 placed in operation. Bus 1B1 was supplied with offsite power through the RAT. But if the transformer failed or the offsite power grid lost, the disabled EDG 1B would not have stepped in to save the day.

Safety was further compromised at 12:30 am on May 14 when Bus 1A1 was de-energized and all the safety equipment it supplied rendered useless.

Had the offsite power grid been lost or the RAT failed, Bus 1B1 and all the equipment it supplied would have been de-energized. Bus 1A1 and all the equipment it supplied was intentionally de-energized. And Bus 1C1, backed by EDG 1C, was energized. But it’s primary safety component, the High Pressure Core Spray system, was unavailable due to ongoing maintenance. The plant was in a vulnerable situation expressly forbidden by its operating license requirements.

Fig. 2 (Source: NRC, color annotations by UCS)

Restoring a Safe Condition

At 3:03 pm on May 17, a worker conducting routine shift rounds found the start air valves for EDG 1B closed and notified the control room operators. The EDG restoration procedure was performed—in its entirety—to really and truly restore EDG 1B to service and achieve compliance with regulatory requirements.

NRC Findings and Sanctions

The NRC special inspection team determined that EDG 1B had been inoperable for over six days without the owner’s awareness. The NRC team additionally determined that for more than three days—from May 14 through May 17—a loss of the offsite power grid would have plunged the plant into a station blackout.

While a station blackout condition doomed three reactors at Fukushima Daiichi to meltdowns, the NRC team identified three ways for workers to have responded to a station blackout at Clinton avert such an outcome. First, they could have discovered the closed start air valves and opened them to recover EDG 1B. Second, they could have started EDG 1C and cross-connected it to re-energize Bus 1B1. While EDG 1C has smaller capacity than EDG 1B, it had sufficient capacity to handle the loads needed during refueling. Third, they could have deployed the FLEX equipment added after Fukushima to cool the reactor core.

The NRC team calculated that had a station blackout occurred, it would have taken about five hours for the loss of cooling to heat up the water in the reactor vessel to the boiling point and that it would have taken about another twelve hours for water to boil away to uncover the reactor core and cause damage. Approximating this timeline helps the NRC assess how likely it would have been for workers to successfully intervene and avert disaster.

The NRC team also identified factors lessening confidence that workers would successfully intervene. The NRC team reported that five different workers entered the room housing EDG 1B a total of twelve times during the period it was disabled for the express purpose of ensuing things were okay. The NRC team observed that the start air valves were located at about knee-level and had been secured in the closed position with long black plastic straps. The NRC team also noted that there were two air pressure gauges both reading zero—a clear indication that there was no start air pressure available for EDG 1B. The NRC team interviewed workers, but never learned why so many workers tasked with looking for signs of trouble overlooked so many signs of trouble so many times.

The NRC issued one Green finding for failing to notice that the EDG 1B start air valves were closed.

The NRC also issued a finding with a significance yet to be determined for the multiple failures to follow procedures that led to the start air valves for EDG 1B remaining closed.

UCS Perspective

The failures by the supervisors and workers can be explained, but not excused.

Like most U.S. nuclear power reactors, Clinton typically shuts down for refueling every 18 or 24 months. The refueling outages last about a month. Thus, Clinton runs about 95 percent of the time and refuels only about 5 percent of the time.

When the reactor was running, safety equipment like the EDGs was routinely removed from service, tested and/or repaired, and returned to service. Similarly, workers conducted rounds—walkdowns of plant areas looking for off-normal conditions—every shift of every day.

During refueling, the same restoration and rounds procedures are used for the same purposes, but under significantly different conditions. When the reactor is running, most safety systems are in service making it easier to concentrate on the tiny subset taken out of service. And it’s easier to spot when something is off-normal.

Many safety systems are removed from service concurrently during refueling. Restoring safety systems to service during refueling is complicated when support systems have not yet been restored to service. Performing rounds is complicated by so many systems and components being out of their normal condition that distinguishing acceptable off-normal from improper off-normal becomes challenging. So, it can be understood how trained and dedicated workers with good intentions can fail to rise to the challenge periodically.

This event illustrates two important safety truths: (1) despite best efforts, things can go wrong, and (2) the way to make best efforts better is to extract lessons learnable from near misses and implement effective fixes.

This event did not involve any actual loss of power to safety equipment or loss of reactor core cooling. This event did involve an increased potential for these losses.

The plant owner and the NRC took this increased potential seriously and examined why it had happened. Those examinations will identify barriers that failed and suggest upgrades to existing barriers or additional barriers to lessen the chances that a potential, or actual, event occurs.

On one hand, Clinton can be said to have dodged a bullet this time. On the other hand, the owner and NRC examining this near miss will help make Clinton—and other reactors—more bulletproof.

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Vogtle and Hatch: Have Cost Over-Runs Undermined Safety Performance? https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/vogtle-and-hatch-safety-performance https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/vogtle-and-hatch-safety-performance#respond Thu, 06 Sep 2018 10:00:58 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=16012 In August 2018, Georgia Power announced raised its estimate of the construction costs for its 45.7% share of the two new reactors being constructed at the Vogtle nuclear plant by $1.1 billion from $7.3 billion to $8.4 billion. Assuming the company lacked warehouses stuffed with money, the cost over-run raised an important question: has the hemorrhaging budget for constructing Vogtle Units 3 and 4 taken funding or distracted management attention away from the company’s operating reactors—Vogtle Units 1 and 2 and Hatch Units 1 and 2—and undermined their nuclear safety performance? Read More

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In August 2018, Georgia Power announced raised its estimate of the construction costs for its 45.7% share of the two new reactors being constructed at the Vogtle nuclear plant by $1.1 billion from $7.3 billion to $8.4 billion. Assuming the company lacked warehouses stuffed with money, the cost over-run raised an important question: has the hemorrhaging budget for constructing Vogtle Units 3 and 4 taken funding or distracted management attention away from the company’s operating reactors—Vogtle Units 1 and 2 and Hatch Units 1 and 2—and undermined their nuclear safety performance?

If asked, Georgia Power would certainly say “nope.” Because the company cannot forecast the cost of building reactors within a billion dollars or so, their skill at forecasting the necessary cost of operating reactors is questionable, at best. In other words, I didn’t ask Georgia Power.

Instead, I examined two data sets that provide more reliable insights on whether cost over-runs on Vogtle Units 3 and 4 have undermined safety performance of the company’s operating reactors. One data set was the quarterly performance ratings issued by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for every operating reactor in the country. The other data set was the reactor power levels reported each day by reactor owners to the NRC.

NRC Performance Ratings

In 2000, the NRC began assessing performance of every operating reactor every quarter using a combination of violations of regulatory requirements identified by NRC inspectors and about 24 performance indicators. When performance meets expectations, the NRC’s findings (if any) are green and the performance indicators are green. The further performance drops below expectations, the colors move from green to white to yellow to red.

Each quarter, the NRC uses the findings and indicators to place each operating reactor into one of five columns of its Action Matrix. When all expectations are met, reactors are placed in Column 1. As performance drops, reactors are moved into Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5. More than 80 percent of the time, NRC has placed reactors in Column 1. So, performance warranting a move out of Column 1 has been experienced, but most often avoided.

The NRC’s quarterly performance ratings between 2012 and the first half of 2018 for the operating reactors at Hatch and Vogtle are shown in Figure 1. Both the Hatch reactors remained in Column 1 the entire time. The two operating reactors at Vogtle dropped into Column 2 for a total of 8 of the 26 quarters. The good news is that Georgia Power was able to remedy the performance shortcomings to return the Vogtle reactors to Column 1. The bad news is that the Vogtle reactors are underperforming the U.S. nuclear fleet. The typical U.S. reactor received Column 1 performance ratings over 80 percent of the time. The Vogtle reactors were in Column 1 less than 70 percent of the time from 2012 onward.

Fig. 1 (Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

Daily Reactor Power Levels

Each day, plant owners report the power levels their reactors are operating at. The NRC archives the reports and posts the daily reactor power levels over the past 365 days on its website. I used this data to plot the daily power levels reported for the Hatch Unit 1 and 2 reactors between 2014 and 2018 in Figure 2. The refueling outages conducted over this period are easy to spot—they are the wider white gaps preceded by a few days of gradually decreasing reactor power levels. Refueling outages commonly last three to four weeks. Figure 2 also shows a few other shorter outages and power reductions, especially on Unit 1.

Fig. 2 (Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

Figure 3 shows the daily power levels for the Vogtle Unit 1 and 2 reactors between 2014 and 2018. Again, refueling outages, non-refueling outages, and power reductions are evident in the plots.

Fig. 3 (Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

The plots of daily reactor power levels may appear as insightful as the squiggles and blips are an EKG screen. To help put the plots for the Hatch and Vogtle reactors in context, the daily power levels for the Pilgrim reactor over the same time period are plotted in Figure 4. During most of this time, Pilgrim resided in Column 4. No reactor in the United States received lower performance ratings from the NRC during this period than Pilgrim.

Fig. 4 (Source: Union of Concerned Scientists)

What’s the difference between good performing reactors and Pilgrim? Pilgrim has fewer big blue rectangular blocks of operating at full power. Ideally, a reactor should run at 100 percent power from refueling outage to refueling outage, with only short-duration power reduction every quarter for testing. The more that the solid blue rectangles between refueling outages are splintered by unplanned shut downs and unwanted power reductions, the less ideally a reactor is operating.

UCS Perspective

The NRC’s quarterly performance ratings suggest the financial and management resources poured into the cost over-runs on Vogtle Units 3 and 4 have not undermined safety performance at Hatch Units 1 and 2.

The NRC’s quarterly performance ratings for Vogtle Units 1 and 2 paint a slightly different picture. Whereas the average U.S. reactor received Column 1 ratings from the NRC over 80 percent of the time, the Vogtle reactors got Column 1 ratings less than 70 percent of the time in recent years. But this situation is tempered by both reactors currently receiving Column 1 ratings. The Vogtle reactors under-performed the U.S. fleet, but not by a troubling extent.

The daily reactor power levels for the Hatch and Vogtle reactors also suggest that performance has not been appreciably undermined. The data do not suggest that the Hatch and Vogtle reactors have the performance shortcomings reflected by the daily reactor power levels for the Pilgrim reactor—the worst performing reactor per the NRC’s ratings—over the same period.

The NRC’s quarterly performance ratings are the public’s safety net. Insufficient budgets, inadequate management attention, aging equipment, and other causes can lead to lowered performance ratings. Lower performance ratings increase NRC oversight. The early detection and correction of performance shortcomings prevents problems from growing to epidemic proportions that invite disaster.

Unfortunately, the NRC is contemplating changes to its quarterly performance ratings and mandated responses that could cut holes in the public’s safety net. As nuclear plants age and their maintenance budgets shrink, the NRC needs to strengthen rather than weaken the most reliable tool it uses to protect public health and safety—timely, reliable and accurate performance ratings.

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Breaking Containment at Crystal River 3 https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/breaking-containment-at-crystal-river-3 https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/breaking-containment-at-crystal-river-3#comments Thu, 30 Aug 2018 10:00:02 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=15963 Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety #10

The Crystal River 3 pressurized water reactor in Florida was shut down in September 2009 for refueling. During the refueling outage, the original steam generators were scheduled to be replaced. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was reviewing the owner’s application to extend the reactor operating license for another 20 years. Read More

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Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety #10

The Crystal River 3 pressurized water reactor in Florida was shut down in September 2009 for refueling. During the refueling outage, the original steam generators were scheduled to be replaced. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was reviewing the owner’s application to extend the reactor operating license for another 20 years. The replacement steam generators would enable the reactor to operate through the end of its current operating license period as well as to the end of a renewed license.

But those plans changed drastically when the process of cutting an opening in the concrete containment wall for the steam generator replacement inflicted extensive damage to the concrete. When the cost of fixing the broken containment rose too high, the owner opted to permanently shut down the facility before its original operating license expired.

Background

Crystal River 3 is located on the western coast of Florida and featured a pressurized water reactor (PWR) designed by Babcock & Wilcox. The NRC issued the reactor operating license on December 3, 1976.

Refueling Outage and Steam Generator Replacements

Operators shut down the reactor on September 26, 2009, to begin the plant’s 16th refueling outage. Workers planned to replace the steam generators during the outage. The original steam generators were wearing out and were to be replaced with steam generators made from materials more resistant to wear and tear. Since the first steam generator replacements more than two decades earlier, so many PWRs had performed this exercise that it was almost routine.

Figure 1 shows a simplified side view of the containment structure at Crystal River 3. The reactor core is the green rectangle within the capsule-shaped reactor vessel. The reactor vessel is flanked by the two larger steam generators. In front of the steam generator on the right is the pressurizer. The vertical portion of containment is a cylinder about 137 feet in diameter.

Fig. 1 (Source: Progress Energy)

The containment at Crystal River 3 was a 3-D post-tensioned concrete cylinder with a steel liner. The 0.475-inch thick steel liner formed the inner surface of the containment wall. Behind it were 42-inch thick concrete walls and a 36-inch thick concrete dome. Embedded in the concrete walls were 5.25-inch round tendons encased within metal sleeves. These tendons functioned like reinforcing bands—workers tightened, or tensioned, them to give the concrete wall additional strength against the internal pressure that could occur during an accident. This containment design was used for more than half of the PWRs operating in the United States.

The containment featured a large round opening called the equipment hatch. Figure 2 shows the equipment hatch in late November 1972 during plant construction. The concrete has not yet been poured in that section of containment, so the metal reinforcing bars and horizontal tendon sleeves (the vertical rows of white dots on either side of the equipment hatch) embedded in the concrete are visible.

 

Fig. 2 (Source: Progress Energy)

Because the original steam generators were expected to last throughout the 40-year operating life of the reactor, the equipment hatch was not large enough for the steam generators to be removed intact. They could have been cut up into sections and slices removed through the equipment hatch. But the equipment hatch was also too small for the replacement steam generators to enter intact. Cutting them up into sections was not an option. Plan B involved cutting an opening approximately 25-feet by 27-feet through the containment concrete wall and liner above the equipment hatch as shown in Figure 3.

Fig. 3 (Source: Progress Energy)

The Butterfly Defect

The operators began reducing the reactor power level at 7:03 pm on September 25, 2009, to enter the refueling outage. They shut down the reactor at 12:29 am September 26. They continued cooling the reactor water down over the next few hours and entered Refueling mode at 4:51 pm that afternoon. Seven minutes later, the contractor hired to cut through the containment wall was authorized to begin that work. An early step involved loosening and removing the horizontal tendons from the containment wall in the region where the opening would be cut.

On September 30, workers began using high-pressure water—at pressures up to 25,000 pounds per square inch—to cut and remove the concrete from an 8-feet wide by 6-feet tall test section of the concrete containment wall. Full-scale removal of the concrete began at 4:30 am on October 1. Workers installed a debris chute to carry away the excavated concrete and water.

About 5:00 am on October 2, the concrete cutting and removal work was halted because an obstruction in the debris chute caused water to spill. Workers noticed water streaming from a crack in the containment wall below and to the right of the new opening. Investigation into this unexpected waterfall identified a vertical crack in the concrete between the tendon sleeves and interior liner.

Fig. 4 (Source: Progress Energy)

It was not a tiny crack. It was visible along all four edges of the square opening cut through the containment wall. The defect in the concrete was termed delamination.

Fig. 5 (Source: Progress Energy)

Workers drilled dozens of bore holes into the containment wall supplemented by impulse response testing (essentially ultrasonic probing of the wall to look for voids within the concrete) to map out the extent of the delamination. Figure 6 shows that the delamination area resembled a butterfly, extending far beyond the crack around the steam generator replacement (SGR) opening. Figure 6 also shows the horizontal tendons loosened and removed because of the opening in blue while the tendons left tensioned are shown in red.

Fig. 6 (Source: Progress Energy)

The NRC Dispatches its Crack Inspection Team

The NRC formed a Special Inspection Team on October 13, 2009, to go to Crystal River 3 and investigate the containment damage. Because the reactor was shut down, the damage did not pose an immediate safety hazard. But the NRC recognized that the damage might have generic implications as other owners cut through containments for steam generator and reactor vessel head replacements. In addition, the NRC needed to understand the extent of the damage to ensure the containment was properly restored before the reactor restarted.

Delamination Déjà vu

The NRC team reported that the Crystal River 3 containment experienced concrete delamination about a year after the tendons had been initially tightened. In April 1976, electricians were drilling into the outer surface of the containment dome to secure anchors for the conduit they were installing. In certain areas, the anchors would not hold. Investigation found a region of about 105-feet in diameter where the concrete had delaminated. The delamination affected about 15 inches of the 36-inch thick concrete dome, with the maximum gap between layers being about two inches wide. Cracks were not evident on the inner or outer surfaces of the dome, but workers reported a “springiness” when walking across the dome’s delamination region. The degraded concrete was removed and replaced with the standard, non-springy kind.

Containment concrete delamination also occurred during construction at the Turkey Point nuclear plant in Florida in June 1970 and at the Unit 2 reactor at the Kaiga nuclear plant in India in May 1994.

Causes of the Concrete Cracking

The plant’s owner formed a team to determine the cause for the cracking experienced in fall 2009. The team developed a list of 75 potential causes and then evaluated each candidate. 67 suspects were dismissed due to lack of evidence. The remaining eight potential causes were determined to have conspired to cause the delamination—had any single factor been absent, the delamination would likely not have occurred.

The Crystal River 3 containment design featured higher stresses than most other designs. The concrete used in the containment met design specifications, but with considerably less margin than normal. And the sequencing used to loosen the tendons prior to cutting the steam generator replacement opening resulted in high localized stresses that exacerbated the design and material conditions to cause cracking.

NRC Sanctions

The NRC imposed no sanctions following the investigation by its Special Inspection Team. The team determined that the containment was damaged after the reactor entered the Refueling mode. In that mode, containment integrity was not required. The equipment hatch is wide open much of the time during Refueling mode, so having a damaged section of containment wall above that large opening did not violate regulatory requirements.

NRC Nuclear Fleet Outreach

The NRC’s Generic Communications program is its means for conveying operating experience to plant owners. The program uses Information Notices to provide warnings and updates about safety problems and Generic Letters and Bulletins to also require owners to take steps intended to prevent a common problem from rippling across the reactor fleet. While it is not uncommon for the NRC to send out at least an Information Notice to owners about problems like that experienced at Crystal River 3, the NRC did not exercise this option in this case. The NRC did post information to its website about the problem and made a presentation about the Special Inspection Team sent to the plant during the annual Regulatory Information Conference in March 2010.

The NRC’s Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research issued NUREG/CR-7208, “Study on Post Tensioning Methods,” in November 2015. While far from a treatise on what caused the delamination at Crystal River 3, it shed considerable insight on the analysis of stresses impacted on concrete structures when the embedded tendons are tightened.

Delamination to Defueled to Decommissioning

The plant’s owner made several attempts to repair the damaged concrete containment wall, but the efforts proven unsuccessful. During the efforts, workers completed offloading all the fuel assemblies from the reactor vessel into the spent fuel pool on May 29, 2011. After another repair failed, the company decided to permanently shut down the facility rather than undertake the cost—and uncertain outcome—of yet another attempt. On February 5, 2013, the company announced that the reactor had been permanently shut down and would transition into decommissioning.

UCS Perspective

This event reflects just right regulation by the NRC.

The NRC dispatched a Special Inspection Team to investigate the cause and corrective actions for the concrete degradation at Crystal River 3 even though the problem had no adverse safety implications for the reactor in refueling mode.

Had the NRC not done so or delayed doing so, any potential generic implications that adversely affected safety at operating reactors might have been missed. While no such implications were found, it’s far better to have looked for them and not found them than to have not looked for them and had them “surprise” us later.

Had the NRC not done so or delated doing so, the agency would not have clearly understood the cause of the concrete degradation in order to make informed decisions about the effectiveness of repairs. Restart of the plant would have been delayed as the NRC belatedly sought to acquire that awareness, or restart of the plant would have happened lacking the NRC’s independent verification that proper safety levels had been restored. The former would have placed an undue economic burden on the owner; the latter would have placed an undue risk burden on workers and the public.

But the NRC took just the right actions at just the right time to properly oversee safety at the plant. The owner’s decision to permanently retire rather than repair the plant without the NRC’s thumb on either side of the scales.

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UCS’s Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety series of blog posts is intended to help readers understand when regulation played too little a role, too much of an undue role, and just the right role in nuclear plant safety.

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Naughty and Nice Nuclear Nappers https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/naughty-and-nice-nuclear-nappers https://allthingsnuclear.org/dlochbaum/naughty-and-nice-nuclear-nappers#respond Thu, 23 Aug 2018 10:00:04 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=15955 Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety 9

The Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station in Delta, Pennsylvania is known for its tireless workers. They stop working long before getting tired and nap while on duty. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) treated the nuclear nappers as naughty in 1987 but as nice in 2007. Read More

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Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety 9

The Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station in Delta, Pennsylvania is known for its tireless workers. They stop working long before getting tired and nap while on duty. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) treated the nuclear nappers as naughty in 1987 but as nice in 2007. The reason for such disparate handling of the same problem isn’t apparent. Maybe if I took a nap it would come to me in a dream.

Peach Bottom is home to three reactors. Unit 1 was a high temperature gas-cooled reactor that got its operating license in January 1966 and was permanently shut down in October 1974. Units 2 and 3 are boiling water reactors that began operating in 1974.

Naughty Nuclear Nappers in 1987

On March 31, 1987, the NRC ordered both operating reactors at Peach Bottom to be shut down. The NRC had received allegations that control room operators were routinely sleeping in the control room. Victor Stello, the NRC’s Executive Director for Operations, wrote in the order:

… it is apparent that the licensee, through its enforcement history and from what has been developed by the ongoing investigation, knew or should have known of the unwillingness or inability of its operations staff to comply with Commission requirements, and has been unable to implement effective corrective action. Consequently, the NRC lacks reasonable assurance that the facility will be operated in a manner to assure that the health and safety of the public will be protected. Pending the development of other relevant information, I am unable to determine that there is reasonable assurance that the facility will be operated in a manner to assure that the health and safety of the public will be protected. Accordingly, I have determined that continued operation of the facility is an immediate threat to the public health and safety.

Fig. 1 (Source: CBS Evening News, March 31, 1987)

Nucleonics Week reported on August 18, 1988, that the NRC proposed a then-record $1,250,000 fine on the company and fines ranging from $500 to $1,000 for 33 of the plant’s 36 licensed operators for the nuclear naps. The remaining three operators were cited for violating federal regulations, but not fined.

The NRC issued amendments to the operating licenses for Peach Bottom Units 2 and 3 on March 22, 1989, to add limits on how many hours the operators could work. The added requirements limited hours worked in any 24-hour period to 16, 24 hours worked in any 48-hour period, and 60 hours in any week. The amendment wasn’t clear whether hours sleeping on duty counted against the limits or not.

Unit 2 remained shut down until May 22, 1989, while Unit 3 remained shut down until December 11, 1989. The outages lasted longer than two years not to let the operators get plenty of rest but to remedy the many problems caused by the same inadequate management oversight that condoned operators sleeping in the control rooms.

Nice Nuclear Nappers in 2007

On March 27, 2007, the NRC received allegations that individuals working for the contract firm providing security at Peach Bottom were routinely sleeping in the “ready room” and that management of the security contractor and the plant owner knew about it. (The “ready room” is where armed responders wait. When security force personnel in another room monitoring video cameras and sensors detect unauthorized intruder(s), the armed responders are deployed to deter the intrusion.)

On April 30, 2007, the NRC wrote the plant owner a letter asking whether security officers were inattentive on duty. On May 30, 2007, the owner wrote back to the NRC saying that security officers were properly attentive, and that additional radio checks and periodic post checks were being instituted to boost and sustain that attentiveness level.

In mid-June 2007, a security officer informed security management about his videotapes showing fellow security officers still sleeping on duty. In late June 2007, the security officer was instructed by security management to stop videotaping sleeping security officers. On August 22, 2007, NRC inspectors confirmed that security officers were attentive while on duty.

On September 10, 2007, WCBS-TV (New York City) broadcast videos of security officers sleeping at Peach Bottom on June 9, June 20, and August 10, 2007. On September 17, 2007, the security officer who reported sleeping security officers to security management, plant management, and the NRC was suspended due to “trustworthiness concerns.”

Fig. 2 (Source: CNN Situation Room, September 2007)

The ensuing NRC investigation commended the company’s handling of the situation and reported:

Overall, Security Plan implementation provided assurance that the health and safety of the public was adequately protected at all times. Notwithstanding, the security officer inattentiveness adversely impacted elements of the defense-in-depth security strategy. In addition, actions by security guard force supervision were not effective in ensuring that unacceptable security officer behavior was promptly identified and properly addressed.

The NRC asked other owners on December 12, 2007, about their ways and means for maintaining security officers who were bright-eyed or bushy-tailed (not both, both attributes would not have passed the backfit rule) while protecting nuclear power plants. The NRC’s mandate clearly resulted from the nuclear nappers at Peach Bottom, but it did not mention the incidents, the company’s name, or the plant’s name for unknown reasons.

The NRC did not order either Peach Bottom reactor to reduce power, yet alone shut down.

The NRC did not fine the company, Exelon, or the napping security officers.

Instead, the NRC issued a White finding to the company on February 12, 2008, for the inattentive security officers. If you ever had to have a bad report card signed by your parents or paid a nickel for an overdue library book, you suffered a harsher sanction than NRC imposed for the nice nuclear nappers.

UCS Perspective

There were two sequences involving nuclear nappers at Peach Bottom. The series leading up to the March 1987 shutdown order did not involve an operator nodding off, but rather a deliberate practice of sleeping on duty with management’s awareness and tolerance.

The series leading up to the February 2008 White finding also did not involve one security officer nodding off at his or her post, but rather a sustained practice of sleeping on duty with management’s awareness and tolerance.

Clearly, the NRC considered the nuclear nappers to be naughty in one case and nice in the other.

Such disparate regulatory response to the same underlying situation means that one series represented over-regulation and the other was under-regulation. My vote on which goes where should be obvious. I’ll leave it up to the reader to place the 1987 series into either the under-regulation or over-regulation bin, with the 2007 series going into the other bin.

Two wrongs still don’t make a right, so these two cases cannot be melded into one just-right regulation story. That just wouldn’t be right.

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UCS’s Role of Regulation in Nuclear Plant Safety series of blog posts is intended to help readers understand when regulation played too little a role, too much of an undue role, and just the right role in nuclear plant safety.

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How to Think about Space-Based Missile Defense https://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/space-based-missile-defense https://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/space-based-missile-defense#comments Wed, 22 Aug 2018 16:19:52 +0000 https://allthingsnuclear.org/?p=15980 UPDATE: In September 2018, UCS released an animated feature and video that explains how space-based missile defense works. Check it out here.

The idea of space-based missile defense system has been around for more than 30 years. There are at least two reasons for its continuing appeal. Read More

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UPDATE: In September 2018, UCS released an animated feature and video that explains how space-based missile defense works. Check it out here.

The idea of space-based missile defense system has been around for more than 30 years. There are at least two reasons for its continuing appeal.

The first is that it is seen as a global system that could defend against missile launches from anywhere in the world.

The second is the attraction of intercepting long-range ballistic missiles during their “boost phase”—the few minutes when their engines are burning. Hitting a missile while it is burning sidesteps the difficulty of evading decoys and other countermeasures that missiles can release during midcourse phase after their engines shut off. Defenses that are intended to intercept during midcourse phase, like the US Ground-based Midcourse Defense and Aegis systems, are highly susceptible to countermeasures.

But for an interceptor to be able to reach a missile during the short boost phase, it must be stationed close to where the missile is launched—which is the motivation for putting interceptors in orbit so they can pass over the launch site.

However, the reality of space-based defenses is not so appealing.

Technical studies (for example, by the American Physical Society (APS) (2004) and National Academies of Science and Engineering (2012)) show that even a system with many hundreds of space-based interceptors would not provide an effective defense—in part because the interceptor constellation would be vulnerable to anti-satellite weapons and to being overwhelmed by a salvo of missile launches.

Yet it would be extremely expensive. The National Academy study concluded that a space-based boost-phase missile defense would cost 10 times more than any terrestrial alternative. It said that even an “austere and limited-capability” system would cost at least $300 billion.

These problems are intrinsic to the system because of the physics of operating in space. A few diagrams can make clear why—see below.

Basics, and Implications

The technology does not exist for space-based lasers powerful enough for missile defense, so the defense systems being discussed would use kinetic interceptors that would accelerate out of orbit and physically collide with a missile. Since a missile’s boost phase lasts only a few minutes, in order to reach the missile the interceptors need to be in low-altitude orbits (typically 300 to 500 km (200 to 300 miles)) that pass over the launch site.

Fig. 1. An orbit lies in a plane that passes through the center of the Earth. The angle between that plane and the plane that contains the equator is called the “inclination” of the orbit. The “ground track” of an orbit is the line of points on the Earth directly below the satellite. (Source)

The fact that the interceptors are in low-altitude orbits has three important implications:

  1. The system needs a very large number of interceptors in orbit: An interceptor can’t sit over one location on Earth (the orbit that allows satellites to appear stationary over a point on the ground is 100 times higher—in the geostationary band—which is much too far away). Instead, to remain in orbit the interceptor constantly moves at very high speed (25 times the speed of a jet); at this speed it circles the Earth in about 90 minutes. As a result, it spends very little time over any particular spot on the Earth.

That means the system needs many interceptors in orbit so that one moves into position as the one in front of it moves out of position. As I show below, 300 to 400 interceptors are needed in orbit just to cover North Korea, and 1,000 or more for global defense coverage.

  1. An adversary will know where the interceptors are at all times: At these low altitudes, the interceptors can be easily tracked by an adversary, who can then calculate where they will be in the future since objects in orbit move in a predictable way. An adversary will therefore also know where there are any holes in the defense coverage. A defense with predictable holes in it is not an effective defense.

Fig. 2. Even a 1,200 km (750 mile) range missile could lift an anti-satellite weapon high enough to attack a space-based interceptor in a 300 to 500 km altitude orbit.

  1. The interceptors will be vulnerable to attack from low-cost ground-based weapons: To launch objects into orbit you need to lift them to high altitude AND accelerate them to very high orbital speed. That requires a large space-launch rocket and is very expensive, which contributes to the high cost of creating a large constellation of interceptors in space.

However, firing an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon at an interceptor as it passes overhead just requires lifting the ASAT to the altitude of interceptor, and that can be done with a relatively cheap short-range or medium-range missile. Interceptors orbiting at 300 to 500 km would easily be within range of the Chinese DF-21D missile. Figure 2 shows that even a missile like a North Korean Nodong or Iranian Shahab 3 fired vertically could reach high enough altitudes to attack these interceptors if these countries developed or acquired ASAT capability to put on them.

Estimating the Number of Space-based Interceptors to Cover North Korea

This section shows why the physics of space-based boost-phase interceptors requires such a large constellation.

For a system optimized to defend against launches from North Korea, a space-based interceptor would be in an orbit like the white one in Figure 3, which is inclined at 45o to the equator and can carry the interceptor over North Korea.

Fig. 3. The white circle is the ground track of an interceptor orbit that is inclined at 45o to the equator (red circle).

Figure 4 shows missile trajectories (yellow lines) from North Korea to the east and west coasts of the United States. The yellow circle shows the region in which a space-based interceptor traveling on the white orbit could intercept a missile below it. This circle is 1,600 km (1,000 miles) in diameter, which assumes a very capable interceptor in a low-altitude orbit against liquid-fueled missiles like North Korea has. Against solid-fueled missiles, which would typically have a shorter burn times, the circle would be smaller.

Fig. 4. The white curve is the ground track of the interceptor’s orbit. The yellow circle is the region in which the interceptor could reach a missile launched below it. The circle is 1,600 km in diameter, which assumes δV = 4 km/s for the interceptor, in line with the assumptions in the APS and National Academies studies.

The interceptor moves rapidly in orbit, circling the Earth in about 90 minutes. That means the yellow circle will only be over North Korea for 3.5 minutes. To keep an interceptor over North Korea at all times there must be other interceptors in the orbit (black dashed circles) that move into place when the ones in front of them move out of place (Fig. 5).

Fig. 5. As the interceptor moves in orbit, the yellow circle will not stay over North Korea and additional interceptors—indicated here by the black dashed circles—must be in position to take its place.

To have constant coverage over North Korea, there must be interceptors all around the orbit. In the case shown here, it takes 25 interceptors to fill up this orbit so that one of them is always over some part of North Korea. Since you would want overlap between the circles, you would need more than that—probably 40 to 50 interceptors in the orbit.

So far we have taken into account the motion of the interceptor in its orbit but not the fact that the Earth is rotating under this orbit. Three and a half hours after the situation shown in Figure 5 North Korea will have moved 4,000 km (2,500 miles) east. The interceptors on this orbit will no longer be able to reach missiles launched from North Korea: Figure 6 shows that the yellow circle no longer contains any part of the missile trajectories. That means the system would need seven or eight orbits spaced around the Earth, each with 40 to 50 interceptors, so that interceptors on these other orbits will be over North Korea as the Earth rotates.

Fig. 6. Three and a half hours later than the situation shown in Figure 5, the Earth will have rotated under the orbit and the interceptor in the yellow circle will no longer be able to reach missiles launched from North Korea toward the United States.

Figure 7 shows eight equally spaced orbits (white lines) for a constellation optimized to cover North Korea, with a total of 300 to 400 interceptor satellites. That constellation, however, would only give constant coverage over latitudes near North Korea (red dot). Below about 35o latitude there would be big gaps in the coverage through which a country could fire a missile. And the constellation gives no coverage at all above about 55o latitude, which includes almost all of Russia (Fig. 8).

Fig. 7. Eight orbits (white lines) making up a constellation to cover North Korea.

Fig. 8. This figure shows the ground coverage (gray areas) of interceptor satellites in a constellation using equally spaced orbital planes with 45° inclination, assuming the interceptors can defend an area 1,600 km in diameter. The two dark lines are the ground tracks of two of the interceptors in neighboring planes. As the gray areas show, this constellation can provide complete ground coverage for areas between about 30° and 50° latitude (both north and south), less coverage below 30°, and no coverage above about 55°.

Achieving more global coverage would require a constellation of 1,000 or more interceptor satellites. Figure 9 shows a constellation of 24 orbits with inclinations of 65o. With 40 to 50 interceptor satellites per orbit, this system would have a total of 960 to 1,200 satellites.

Such a system would still only be able to engage a few missiles fired in a volley from the same place. It would give thin coverage at all latitudes between 70 degrees north and south, assuming a boost-phase interceptor that could defend an area shown by the yellow circle in Figure 2.

Fig 9. This figure shows a constellation of 24 orbits with inclinations of 65o. With 40 to 50 interceptor satellites per orbit, this system would have a total of 960 to 1,200 satellites and could give thin coverage of the Earth between 70o north and south latitude. The yellow circle is the area one interceptor could cover, which we assume is 1,600 km in diameter, as in Figures 4-6.

Two final notes:

  1. It doesn’t make sense to put midcourse interceptors in space: midcourse interceptors do not need to be close to the launch site, and deploying them in space leads to a very expensive system compared to ground-based systems.
  2. For a geographically small country bordered by water—in particular, North Korea—boost phase intercepts may be possible from from air-borne drones or ships, which are options currently being researched.

For more on space-based defenses, click here.

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